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不变革就解体?欧盟将往何处去

2017-09-21 09:22:54   新华网

首先是持续至今的欧债危机。2008年美国次贷危机爆发后,世界金融领域随之震荡,逐渐发展为全球领域的金融危机。受此影响,2009年末,希腊政府宣布当年财政赤字占国内生产总值的比例将超过12%,远高于欧盟设定的3%上限。随后,全球三大评级公司相继下调希腊主权信用评级,欧洲主权债务危机率先在希腊爆发。随后葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙等国政府也相继曝出财政问题,欧债危机开始在整个欧盟范围内蔓延,甚至影响到了法国、德国等经济状况稍好的国家。

直到2013年,爱尔兰退出欧债危机纾困机制,成为首个脱困国家,而其他危机国家经济仍处在缓慢复苏当中,十分脆弱。危机爆发后,尽管欧洲央行、国际货币基金组织等一直致力于为希腊债务危机寻求解决办法,但分歧不断。欧元区成员国担心,无条件救助希腊可能助长欧元区内部“挥霍无度”并引发本国纳税人不满。同时,欧元区内部协调机制运作不畅,致使救助希腊的计划迟迟不能出台,也导致危机持续恶化。

其次是英国“脱欧”事件。英国在1973年加入欧盟的前身——欧洲共同体,并在1975年举行了是否应该继续留在欧共体的公投,结果过半数投票者支持留在欧共体。然而英国国内始终存在强烈的疑欧主义声音,随着欧盟近年来机制体制运行不畅、经济上持续疲软以及难民涌入等一系列问题发酵,加速了其国内“疑欧”派的发展和壮大。在英国国内,无论保守党还是工党在加强融入还是彻底脱离欧盟的问题上,均无法统一意见。即使是“留欧”派,也反对英国再转移更多权力至欧盟,并要求从欧盟取回更多权力,如重新实行移民及边境管制的权力等。更有甚者,如英国独立党就明确主张退出欧盟。

在2016年6月23日的英国脱欧公投中,有51.9%的英国选民投票决定离开欧盟。2017年3月,英国政府触发“欧洲联盟基本条约”第五十条,代表着英国将于2019年3月正式离开欧盟。英国首相特蕾莎·梅在公开场合宣布,离开欧盟后,英国不会寻求单一市场或关税同盟常任理事国位置,同时承诺将废除1972年的《欧洲共同体法案》,使英国不再以欧盟法律为优先,并将现行的欧盟法律纳入英国国内法律体系中。

英国脱欧是欧盟一体化进程中的历史性事件,将对一体化的路径和前途产生深远影响。它严重削弱了欧盟的软硬实力,激发欧盟范围内疑欧政党的反弹,改变内部的立场平衡并加剧欧盟发展的方向之争。未来,欧盟如果不能在危机中寻找到有效路径,务实寻求一体化的推进,其发展将丧失动力。

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