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区域大国 各取所需
刁大明认为,尽管与土耳其在库尔德武装和“居伦运动”问题上存在分歧,但美国为了实现在叙利亚、中东乃至亚欧地区事务中的地缘政治目标,仍视土耳其为可争取拉拢的对象。
这也是为什么美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安迄今保持积极接触和互动,在一定程度上对土耳其持观望、容忍态度。刁大明说,如今叙利亚局势趋向平稳,消灭“伊斯兰国”后,如果土耳其与俄罗斯走得太近,对美国不利。美国需要土耳其在中东各方角力中发挥平衡作用,“不会急于翻脸”。
莫斯科大学外籍教授、中国政法大学欧洲研究中心研究员王晓伟说,在俄看来,出售先进的S-400防空系统旨在换取土的政治支持。在西方国家长期对俄加码制裁下,俄罗斯在国际上相对孤立,寻求通过军火交易获得更多国家支持。王晓伟说,在叙问题上,土耳其拥有不可小觑的影响力。如果土耳其和俄罗斯在叙问题上协调立场,很容易让美国主导的打击“伊斯兰国”国际联盟处于弱势、被动局面,这正是俄罗斯希望看到的。
综合来看,刁大明说,此次土俄签下军售大单,是土耳其以自身为砝码的骑墙之举。土耳其显然是在“担当多面平衡手”,努力在美国、俄罗斯和欧洲多方角力中保持微妙平衡,以保证自身利益最大化。(据新华社)
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