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报道称,特朗普美东时间14日,在未直接提“301条款”的情况下签署备忘录,指示贸易代表办公室(USTR)对中国展开行动。
上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院院长黄建忠表示,中美双方经贸问题不少,特朗普选择从知识产权“破题”,内地要反制也很难。
但他表示,中国商务部的反应还是比较友好的,并没有想撕破脸。这显示,中国不愿意全面打贸易战,未来中美经贸还是会在“斗而不破”格局下发展,大的贸易战谁都打不起。
黄建忠说,美国可能因为中国相对友好的态度而开始叫价。毕竟中国对美国的贸易顺差今年上半年再创新高,真的太明显,让美国难以向国内交代。
浙江大学美国研究中心研究员刘国柱表示,中美目前还没到贸易战的程度,最多就是一个序曲。美国启动调查目的就是向中国施压,在外贸上要求中国让步更多,但双方对话机制很多,可能在调查中达成妥协。
他指出,中美双方未来在经济上会存在“摩擦常态”,包括在知识产权、汇率、对外经贸这三方面。虽不至于闹到不可开交而爆发全面贸易战,但要提防美方对单一行业出现“过激表现”。
至于美国对内地的贸易逆差问题,刘国柱说,短期内难以改变,因为美国对华的出口限制很多,特别是高阶技术的精密机床、高速计算机等,因此就算美国牛肉、稻米可出口到中国,但平衡美国对中国的贸易逆差作用有限。
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