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伊朗:鲁哈尼在第二任期担子更重

2017-08-08 22:08:15   中国青年网

2016年初,沙特与伊朗断绝外交关系。今年6月,沙特、埃及等多个阿拉伯国家又与卡塔尔断交,并对该国实施封锁。其理由之一便是卡塔尔“私通”伊朗。

伊朗分析人士说,在中东的棋局里,伊朗还不是特别被动,但国内经济疲软使伊朗在应对叙利亚和也门冲突时显得日益吃力。

变革艰难

鲁哈尼承诺,伊朗将进行经济改革。

在有限的条件下,改善国内的市场环境,尽可能通过外交活动与其他“有实力”的国家合作以打通汇路,是鲁哈尼的政策首选。

然而,伊朗国内政治现实可能让变革举步维艰。

在5月的总统选举中,鲁哈尼以得票率57%的绝对优势赢得连任。在议会近300名议员中,以鲁哈尼为首的改革派也占多数。在政府中,鲁哈尼的地位十分稳固。但分析人士认为,尽管如此,鲁哈尼仍很难聚集足够力量推动伊朗改革。

作为政教合一的国家,伊朗世俗政府的权力有限。保守色彩浓厚的专家会议和宪法监护委员会等机构对政府政策的推行拥有否决权。在一系列政策主张上,保守派并不认同鲁哈尼对外开放、搞活市场的做法。而且,军队并不隶属于世俗政府。

伊朗当地民众告诉记者,在伊朗,涉及物资供应的生意得有“背景”才能做起来,普通民众难以涉足。在伊朗,经济的很多领域都形成了既得利益者,鲁哈尼推行改革时若触及这些人的“蛋糕”,势必受到强力阻挠。

秦天指出,未来四年,保守派不太可能有机会挑战鲁哈尼的权威,但不排除保守派通过种种办法掣肘鲁哈尼改革的可能性。

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