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【国际随笔】鲁哈尼第二个任期面临诸多挑战

2017-08-07 08:33:21   中国青年网

8月5日,伊朗连任总统鲁哈尼在议会正式宣誓就职,开启第二个总统任期。在第一个四年任期内,鲁哈尼对内促进经济发展,对外与伊核问题六国达成了伊核问题全面协议。在第二个任期里,伊朗民众期待鲁哈尼在经济上拿出更亮眼的成绩,并领导国家承受来自美国等国不断加码的压力。在分析人士看来,未来四年对鲁哈尼来说将更具挑战性。

今年5月,69岁的鲁哈尼以57%的得票率在总统选举第一轮投票中击败竞争对手赢得连任。8月3日,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊正式授权鲁哈尼出任总统。5日,鲁哈尼的就职仪式在伊朗议会举行,共有近100个国家的政要和代表出席仪式。鲁哈尼在当天发表的演讲中表示,伊朗政府将着眼经济改革,并愿意加强与邻国的关系,愿意与世界各国开展友好合作。他称伊朗绝不会违反伊核问题全面协议,并将反制违反协议的行为。

在第一个任期内,鲁哈尼政府在内政外交上都取得了不小的成果。其中最重要的,应该是2015年7月伊朗与伊核问题六国达成的伊核问题全面协议。这一协议不仅使伊朗遭受的国际制裁得以解除,国际处境得到很大程度的改善,而且为伊朗经济发展带来了契机。伊朗石油出口解禁之后,产油量持续增加,今年3月的出口量一度达到1979年以来的最高水平。而在石油出口的带动下,2016年伊朗与石油相关的产值激增52.2%,国内生产总值也增长6.6%。

尽管成绩斐然,但身为温和改革派的鲁哈尼在今年的总统选举中还是遭到强硬保守派的有力挑战。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊也对伊朗未来四年的发展发表了自己的观点。哈梅内伊在鲁哈尼的授权仪式上发表讲话称,人民的生计、与世界广泛的互动和反对霸权主义是新一届政府工作日程的主要内容。

在分析人士看来,国内强硬保守派的压力以及国际环境的变化,将使鲁哈尼的第二任期更具挑战。在国内,经济问题仍将是鲁哈尼面临的主要问题。伊朗经济虽然有起色,但还没有达到民众的预期。鲁哈尼自己也表示,经济改革将是其未来四年的中心任务,其中最主要的是降低失业率和减少贫困。

在外交方面,如何维护伊核问题全面协议将是鲁哈尼政府最大的挑战。近日,美国会通过了对俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜三国的制裁法案。对于美国卷土重来的制裁,鲁哈尼政府既不能过度反应使局势失控,又需要保持强硬以应对压力,难度可谓不小。此外,在中东地区,能否领导伊朗在多国博弈中纵横捭阖获取最大利益,也将是对鲁哈尼的一大考验。

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