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新华社:特朗普收紧美国对古巴政策给美拉关系投阴影

2017-06-18 13:36:57   

对左翼执政的委内瑞拉,特朗普政府不仅延续前任政府的打压政策,甚至更进一步以涉嫌“走私毒品”等为由,将委内瑞拉副总统艾萨米列入制裁名单。

墨西哥则是受“特朗普效应”冲击最大的拉美国家。竞选期间,特朗普就威胁将重谈北美自由贸易协定、在美墨边界修建隔离墙。上台后,他不遗余力推动这些政策,甚至提议对墨西哥出口美国的商品征收20%进口税,用以修建隔离墙。

张凡说,目前美国的拉美政策更多体现在双边关系方面。在古巴问题上,由于特朗普外交班子中有一些敌视古巴政权的官员,因此对古政策相对明朗。但是主管拉美事务的外交团队尚未搭建,未来美国的拉美政策仍有较大不确定性。

张凡认为,不论美拉关系如何调整,美国在拉美追求安全、稳定等核心利益的诉求不会改变。美国可能会更加关注美拉关系中自身的经济利益,但不会放弃使用其惯用的“民主牌”“人权牌”等。

美拉关系或迎拐点

特朗普政府收紧对古巴政策后,除委内瑞拉、玻利维亚等左翼国家谴责美国,拉美主要国家反应平淡。墨西哥政府敦促美古通过对话解决相关分歧,巴西、阿根廷等其他拉美大国则暂未作出表态。这与此前拉美国家联合起来、为古巴问题不惜与美国公开“叫板”的情形,有较大反差。

在张凡看来,当初促成奥巴马政府推动美古关系缓和的一个重要原因是拉美左翼政府的团结。如今拉美政治出现右转,虽然美国收紧对古巴政策,但是并未激起拉美国家集体反对,因此不会对美拉关系造成直接冲击。

不过,张凡也指出,特朗普自执政以来,无论在内政还是外交上,都明显表现出对奥巴马政治“遗产”的全面推翻和全盘否定的迹象。在这个意义上,奥巴马任内出现的缓和的美拉关系也的确存在一定变数。

美国伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者中心拉美项目主任辛西娅·阿恩森接受媒体采访时表示,整个拉美地区都希望看到美古关系正常化,特朗普收紧对古巴政策“只会不断拉开华盛顿和拉美国家之间的距离”。

除收紧对古巴政策,特朗普政府还在5月底向国会提交的2018财年联邦政府预算中大幅削减对拉美的经济援助。其中,对墨西哥的援助金额减少45%、对中美洲7国减少37%,而对古巴、委内瑞拉的援助项目则被彻底砍掉。

张凡认为,拉美在美国对外政策中的地位一直较为靠后,随着美方计划削减对拉美援助,拉美在美国对外政策中被边缘化的程度可能会进一步加深。这固然会对部分高度依赖美国的拉美国家构成很大压力,但同时也会刺激这些国家减少对美国的依赖,走向真正意义上的自主自决。

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