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人民日报:欧洲一体化为何受阻?

2016-12-25 03:10:31   

为了粉饰这种体制,西方学者说这就是古希腊民主制的延续。他们认为,这种民主能体现“多数人的统治”。这样就发生了理念和现实的脱离,理念的叙述在现实中并不存在。可是,普通民众却相信这种理念,他们相信民主应该是“多数人的统治”即人民自己的统治。结果一旦他们发现西方这种民主制不能代表他们的意愿,他们就要以“多数人”的名义进行抗议、搞街头运动。当人民真的以“多数人”的名义表达愿望,却往往不符合精英的期待。我们今天看到的欧洲就是这种情况:政体的理论基础是雅典式的“民主”,制度安排却是精英式的统治,这就使制度理念与制度运作之间发生了脱节。

我们先看英国脱欧公投。英国是否脱欧,本来有多种方式可供选择。比较稳妥的方式是议会解决,通过议会的表决决定去留。这是在代议制框架内解决的方案,即在精英内部进行操作。如果用这种方式,结果不一定脱欧,因为精英们一般不支持脱欧。但卡梅伦的政治判断出现了偏差,他认为用全体人民投票的方式能一劳永逸地解决问题,因为这体现着“多数人的统治”,具有更大权威性。可是他没有意识到民众是不按照精英的思维方式来思考问题的,更没有意识到如果真像雅典那样实行全体公民投票,雅典式的混乱也可能随之而来。代议制是为了避免这一类混乱而设计的。在一个人口众多、地域广袤的现代国家,城邦式的直接民主执行起来成本比较高,试图用古代的城邦民主方式来解决现代国家问题是很冒险的事。

意大利的伦奇做了同样的事。修宪这样的大事付诸公民投票,结果是意大利也掉入同样的陷阱。事实上,伦奇在议会已经失败了,但议会失败还不至于造成政治乱局;伦奇如果坚持议会解决的方法,也就是在代议制框架内解决问题,也不会立刻就把意大利抛进不确定的漩涡,民粹主义挑战也不会变得迫在眉睫。

苏格兰“脱英”也是这种情况。苏格兰已进行过两次公投,把苏格兰独立问题交付全民表决。两次公投都没有获得过半数支持,尽管在第二次公投中,双方差距其实很小。这大概让卡梅伦误以为英国的“脱欧”也过不了关,从而作出了公投决定。不过,英国的政客们没有意识到,一旦用公投的方式决定苏格兰的去留,最终的结果很可能是“脱英”。因为第一,没有法律限制对同一个问题进行公投的次数,因此只要愿意,每隔几年就可以投一次,直至公投通过;第二,一旦哪一次公投因为偶然原因比如天气不好、超级足球赛等等导致不支持“脱英”的人大量不出门,而支持“脱英”的人仅以微小比例胜出,那么“脱英”就会成为现实;一旦苏格兰真的“脱英”,对欧洲的冲击绝不亚于英国脱欧。西班牙在这个问题上就看得比较清楚,西班牙政府坚持不用公投方式决定加泰罗尼亚独立的问题。

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