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媒体:这位女政治家或成为日本第一位华裔首相

2016-08-30 06:59:47   观察者网

地盘指出生地或祖上留下的选区,以及有选举权的支持者;招牌指头衔、地位和名望;而皮包就是钱。日本的议员很难像美国同行那样,跨出“地盘”之外参选。为了选票,他们便和各部官僚勾结,拼命为自己的地盘争国家预算。他们还根据自己地盘的特点,在党内形成“道路族”、“农林族”等利益集团。

当国家预算难以满足其要求时,他们就在预算外建立不需经过国会年审的“特殊会计”制度,怂恿官僚成立向国家财政和“特殊会计”伸手的政府系统公益法人、独立行政法人、特殊法人等等,并纵容卸任官僚到这些法人当头头,拿高薪。这些法人机构有的大量侵吞国家财政,合法腐败;有的早已落后于时代,尸位素餐。

以国土交通省管辖的特殊法人“道路公团”为例,从国土交通省退休后“下凡”到219 家道路公团家族企业拿高薪的原官僚,达2000 多人。

这种腐败却合法的利权结构,极大侵蚀了日本的经济、政治和民生,使日本经济在1990 年代泡沫经济崩溃后一蹶不振。到2009 年底,财政赤字累计达816 万亿日元,超过GDP 的150%,国家财政频于崩溃,日本民主制度的成本也成为全世界最高。

2009年民主党上台后,对政府系统法人,特别是那些“下凡”现象严重的法人进行彻底审查和整理。对象包括“下凡法人”4504 个,涉及国家公务员再就业者25,245 人,涉及国家财政资金12.1334万亿日元。莲舫在这次行动中表现出色,经常通宵达旦地研读资料,提问时有理有据,切中要害。使其博得了广泛的人气。

三、日本人能否接受华人首相

莲舫立志问鼎首相宝座,是否有可能?而日本人真的能接受一名华裔首相吗?

莲舫能否当上首相,首先要看民进党等在野党是否能够实现政党轮替。现在自民党和公明党政权虽然如日中天,但是其“盛势”中蕴含着巨大的危机。安倍政权所面临的最大问题是经济问题,安倍第二次上台后,打出了振兴日本经济的“三支箭”,而其根本错误,就是坚持以“成长路线”为前提来解决经济萧条与财政赤字问题,但是日本现在处于老龄化、少子化的新历史阶段,劳动力不足、需求减少、消费萎缩是客观事实,日本政府不顾这个客观事实,以经济成长为前提,放松银根,提高税率。

最近20年,日本的GDP基本是走在一个波浪式下降的曲线上,而安倍政权的设想仍然是:增税、放松银根,然后促进经济成长,增加工资,这样就实现了减少财政赤字、GDP增长、消费增加的“一箭三雕”,但是实行打击消费的增加消费税和促进物价上涨是一个可以造成的事实,而从长远来看,依靠这种办法实现经济增长和增加国民收入却是一个幻想,日本厚生劳动省公布的数据显示,在安倍重新掌权后,去年日本国民实际工资指数已连续4年下滑,用幻想支撑的“一箭三雕”已经全部落空,但是安倍政权现在仍然不从削减大有削减余地的开支和浪费、建立移民社会以解决老龄化、少子化难题等根本问题入手,而是死抱住经济成长的幻想,在这个幻想的基础上对已捉襟见肘的国民不断加税并想方设法抬高物价,最近又打出投入28兆日元促进经济增长的政策,用政府财政投入来制造“虚假繁荣”,增加货币在市场的流通,以此来逼高物价,增加企业贷款,提高GDP,其结果必然造成银行不良债权增加,生产出的产品没有消费市场,民众在高税收和高物价压迫下可处分收入越来越少,对未来的前景越来越忧虑,消费心理越来越萎缩,占日本GDP60%以上的国民消费受到沉重打击。

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