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歼15为何身价达4亿?光发动机就值6600万

2017-09-03 18:50:49   中国青年网

价格与战斗力同步增长

歼-15的价格印证了一项曾被或多或少忽略的事实,即曾经以廉价为主要特征的中国武器装备,在我国的军工行业水平追赶世界一流水平的过程中,其生产成本也正在迅速追赶世界一流。

那么,这里就要引入一个重要问题:单价4亿的舰载机到底贵不贵?如果纵向比较,在我国武器装备体系中,这个价格无疑是昂贵的;但如果拿美国和法国的主流舰载机与之相比,这个价格又相对低廉的。

至于歼-15是否划算,则完全是另一个仁者见仁智者见智的问题。以中国最新引进的苏-35为例,根据网络公开的数字结合一些权威媒体的报道,苏-35价格在7000-9000万美元之间(依据配置不同),歼-15的价格已经逼近了苏-35,但两者的作战能力显然不在一个档次上。而以昂贵著称的F-35C,其最新批次(第9批次)的平均售价为1.322亿美元(不含发动机),可知一架F-35C大致相当于两架歼-15。但从作战效能上看,F-35C的综合能力又要领先歼-15一代。

但是,不管这个问题的答案如何,歼-15作为我国首款舰载机,国家既已投入了巨额研发费用,形成了宝贵的经验财富,便不会被轻易地抛弃。笔者认为,歼-15的命运恐怕不会像有些媒体或者专家所言,会轻易被更先进的隐身舰载机所替代,而是将在相当长时期内成为我国舰载机的绝对主力

从成本控制的角度出发,力挺歼-15的原因有二:

首先,歼-15研发已经投入了大量经费。舰载机的立项和投入是一个长期的过程,决策需要审慎,但认定了方向就要坚定走下去,不轻易放弃。歼-15的能力如何是一个可供开放讨论的问题,但仅从经费使用效率的角度出发,我们就应该坚持继续生产歼-15。因为歼-15的订单量越大,前期的投入就越值。

去年曾有报道称我国又从俄罗斯进口了100台AL-31的发动机。考虑到舰载机对引擎可靠性的要求更高,笔者倾向于认为相当数量的AL-31将主要用于歼-15。毕竟,歼-15的产量要满足我国已经下水和正在建造的航母的需要(国内曾有报道称目前歼-15生产线已经停产,但停产可能是为了生产歼-16,同时配合第二艘航母服役的节奏,并不一定意味着不再生产)。“辽宁舰“能够搭载最多20架歼-15,后续001A的载机数量应该在24架左右。未来国产航母如果使用弹射技术,能够搭载的歼-15将增至40-50架。如果按照未来十年内我国服役和下水四艘航母的节奏判断,海军航空兵大概需要200架左右的歼-15(首批歼-15会在未来10年内被陆续替换),其中还会包括单价更高的弹射型歼-15。单纯从成本核算的角度看,歼-15平台不应被轻易取代或放弃。

第二,下一代舰载机的研制耗费更为巨大,而我国的国防预算能否支撑需要权衡。歼-15只是我国现代军事装备高成本的冰山一角。歼-15已经达到了每架4亿人民币,那么歼-20呢?由于使用了全新的研发思路(歼-15的研制是依托苏-33的样机进行的,而且沈飞组装苏-27的过程中已经积累了丰富的经验)和隐身设计,歼-20的售价可能会接近国际市场上同类战斗机的价格,即达到1亿美元(约合人民币6.6亿)。未来我国再研制一款隐身舰载机,其研发成本也会相当高昂。目前,我国仍处在军事装备的“补课期”,有大量的新项目需要攻克,像战略核潜艇、大型航母、战略核武器,以及高性能的战略轰炸机等都需要大量的科研经费。与这些项目相比,新型舰载机的需求是否足够紧迫?就经费分配而言,我国的科研预算是否能够同时承担这么多的重大项目?笔者认为,即便要研制一款新型的舰载隐身战斗机,立项可能也要等到几年之后。

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