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“玛娃”来了!为何近期台风都“偏爱”广东?

2017-09-01 18:56:02   新华网

此外,“玛娃”虽然个头较大,但结构相对松散,并且中心深对流较弱,因此最大强度远低于“天鸽”,最多与“帕卡”强度接近。

  记者:主要影响哪些地区?将带来怎样的风雨影响?

  张玲:台风“玛娃”主要影响广东、福建和江西。

9月1日至4日,“玛娃”将为巴士海峡、南海中北部和东北部、台湾海峡以及福建沿海、广东中东部沿海、珠江口带来7~9级大风,“玛娃”中心经过的附近海域或地区的风力将达到10~12级,阵风可达13~14级。

降雨方面,台风本体主要影响广东东部和福建南部并带来强降水,而江西则受台风倒槽和减弱后的台风低压影响,雨量不会太大。具体来看,2日夜间至4日,广东东部、福建南部、江西南部等地有大到暴雨,局地大暴雨,累计雨量30~70毫米,广东东南部沿海和东北部、福建东南部、江西南部部分地区可达100~160毫米,局地250毫米。

此外,从8月31日到9月1日,在福建西北部和广东部分地区出现了一些对流天气,这是南下冷空气激发产生的对流影响。但随着“玛娃”逐渐向大陆靠近,切断了冷空气的来源,在“玛娃”登陆我国并继续北上的过程中,不会有明显冷空气的参与。

9月2日至4日台风“玛娃”降水量预报图

  记者:连续10天内,已有三个台风登陆广东沿海,台风路径都偏向广东,是何原因所致?

  张玲:历史上,出现三个台风在短短十多天内连续登陆广东的现象是非常少见的。从大气形势来说,目前副热带高压控制我国大陆地区,且盘踞在北纬30°左右呈带状;从今年气候监测的强度来看,8月以来南海季风指数偏高,南海季风强度偏强。可以说近半个月以来,副热带高压和西南季风都呈稳定的状态。受北侧强盛的副热带高压控制,台风的移动路径会向西移动,而受西南季风影响,台风移动的路径会有偏北分量,因此在副热带高压和西南季风的共同作用下,在菲律宾附近生成的热带低压主体移动方向是西北方向,但与大陆的交点都在广东沿海,因此才会出现台风频频光顾广东的现象。

  记者:“玛娃”是否会造成叠加影响?在这种情况下,公众应如何做好防范措施?

  张玲:三个台风虽然都在广东沿海登陆,但“天鸽”和“帕卡”登陆地点在珠江口附近,而“玛娃”登陆的地点在粤东,距离较远。因此,造成叠加影响的区域也主要在粤东地区。

在防御方面,短时强降水可能会引发山区石块、土壤松动,导致山洪、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害发生,因此公众应当减少去降水重叠的山区地带,留意可能引发的次生灾害。此外,台风过境时应减少外出,如需出行需提前关注天气预报、台风预警,带好雨伞等防雨工具,坐飞机的朋友需留意航班是否出现延误情况。

  记者:未来还会有新的台风生成吗?

  张玲:进入九月也到了台风的活跃期,就像刚才我们所说,目前副热带高压较为强盛且呈带状分布,南海季风强度又偏强,因此在带状高压南侧容易有台风生成。从目前来看,9月5日以后,还会有一个台风生成并进入南海。

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