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“天鸽”致珠三角出现超历史潮位 广东省防总要求做好后续台风防御工作

2017-08-25 00:07:30   央广网

由于种种不利因素的相互交织和组合,“天鸽”成为近年来最难防御的台风。据省防总专家介绍,防御“天鸽”遭遇五大不利因素:

一是路径变化大。全球各主要预报机构21日14时预报路径均指向粤东汕尾,22日14时全部调整为指向珠江口以西,路径变化对于防御准备特别是移动速度慢的海上船只避险极其不利。

二是强度变化大。全球各主要预报机构20日14时预报登陆强度均为热带风暴级,21日14时调整为强热带风暴或台风,22日14时调整为台风或强台风,23日6时调整为强台风。

实际上,“天鸽”22日上午以热带风暴强度进入南海后,24小时内风力连跳5级,风力从9级猛增到14级。珠江口两侧沿海市县出现了10级~14级、阵风15级~17级大风,珠海桂山岛录得最大阵风66.9米/秒(17级),最大平均风41.7米/秒(14级)。且进入南海后移速加快,一直在25公里/小时以上,部分时段超过30公里/小时,从进入南海到登陆仅有29小时,布防时间紧迫。

三是风暴潮增水历史罕见。风暴潮刚好与天文大潮和高潮“碰头”,8月23日,台山至饶平一带沿海出现了40-240厘米的风暴增水,珠江口深圳赤湾站(249厘米)、珠海三灶站(268厘米),广州南沙(313厘米)、黄埔(286厘米)、中大站(281厘米),东莞泗盛围站(308厘米)、中山横门站(303厘米)等6个站出现了超历史最高、超百年一遇高潮位。台风经过的广东中东部海面和南海北部海域出现了6.0-10.0米的狂浪到狂涛。风暴潮和巨浪严重威胁沿海低洼地区人员和设施安全。

四是行进路径与登陆点极其不利。行进路径与海岸线夹角较小,导致珠三角城市群均位于破坏力更强的台风右侧,造成台风横扫广州、深圳、珠海、佛山、中山、江门、东莞、惠州、肇庆珠三角9市以及阳江、云浮、茂名等地区,广州、中山、珠海、东莞、江门等地均遭遇强风和严重的风暴潮。与2015年10月登陆湛江强台风“彩虹”影响主要在湛江、2016年8月登陆深圳强台风“妮妲”影响主要在深圳、惠州、汕尾相比,“天鸽”影响范围更大,且主要为人口、产业、建筑密集的珠三角地区。

五是台风后续降雨雨强大。粤西局部地区出现特大暴雨,1小时雨量最大值出现在江门台山市三合镇126.3毫米(五十年一遇),过程最大雨量出现在茂名高州市谢鸡镇322.4毫米;粤西鉴江、漠阳江,西江流域中下游支流罗定江、新兴江等河流部分站点超过警戒水位。

由于这些不利因素的存在,给防御工作带来严峻挑战,防御范围不断变化。由于区域防御变成全省防御。

面对这些不利因素,省防总及时组织专家会商研判,调整防御部署,划定风险区域,明确防御重点,并通过视频与沿海相关市连线,进行点对点防御指导。同时组建了水利专家团队,24小时在省防总值守,为防御决策提供技术支持,为各地出现的险情把脉问诊,及时指导处置各种险情,由于措施得力,将灾害损失将至最低。

据初步统计,截至24日15时,受“天鸽”影响,全省珠海、中山、江门、广州、茂名、阳江、佛山、东莞等市受灾,因灾死亡9人,直接经济损失118.4545亿元,农作物受灾面积75.7004万亩,受灾人口44.6271万人,转移人口53.5306万人,倒塌房屋6425间。灾情仍在进一步核实中。

专家指出,这次“天鸽”带来的罕见风暴潮,未造成大的人员伤亡,一方面离不开各地按照省委省政府和省防总要求,把风暴潮防御工作作为重点,同时,也得益于近年来广东大力加强水利防灾减灾工程建设,提高防御能力,水利工程在防御风暴潮发挥重要防灾减灾作用。

目前,“天鸽”已去,新的台风又已形成,位于菲律宾洋面上的热带低压已经形成。省防总要求,各地在密切关注新台风发展态势,继续做好防御工作。

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