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社科院报告:北京房价环比首降 环京城市跌幅大

2017-06-13 01:30:46   

中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,整体而言,北京市房地产行业的调整才刚刚开始,从未来的趋势来看,应该会在类似7、8月这样的淡季表现得更明显一些。

房价走势源于管控投资需求

在5月份北京房价指数环比出现下跌的同时,《报告》还显示,环京房价也大幅下跌。其中,廊坊5月房价指数环比下降8.54%,位居样本城市跌幅第一位。另外据《报告》显示,京津冀房价指数5月环比也下降了4.22%。

北京及环北京各市房价指数下降的原因,与趋严的购房政策及收紧的货币环境相关。报告指出,各热点城市既有组合拳,还有集体行动,如北京不仅要求“认房认贷认商认离”,还调整了入学政策,对“学区房”炒作进行精准打击,环北京各市也联合出台了要求三年以上当地社保的需求管控政策。

再从整体来看,《报告》认为,5月热点城市房价的相对稳定,主要源于政府对住房投资需求的严厉管控。

邹琳华认为,从宏观环境看,货币供应持续偏紧,无风险货币基金年化利率突破4%,部分银行房贷利率大幅上浮。购房政策及货币环境的全面收紧,对短期市场构成显著的利空。但从供给方面看,受土地供应和环境承载能力限制,各大城市扩大住房供给的潜力普遍不足,长期供求矛盾仍然存在。

《报告》建议,为进一步稳定房价,短期热点城市应坚持限购、限贷等需求调控政策;而从长期来看,应通过城市群的发展逐步缓解大城市住房供求矛盾。

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