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■目的明确的“盘算”
法国国际关系与战略研究所网站曾发文称,印度对东京而言是一个天然的合作伙伴。2016年,安倍晋三正式提出“自由、开放的印度洋太平洋战略”,同时把日本和印度定位成发挥拉动作用的国家。2017年初,安倍访问东南亚四国时对并不在访问之列的印度释放信号:“日本在自由、开放的印度洋太平洋战略下,有作为地区一员承担重大责任和角色的思想觉悟。”近几年,日本与印度都发展了全球性战略伙伴关系,同时快速增强了彼此的经济与安全联系。2017年以来,从4月日本众院审议日印核能协定批准案,到5月份声称合作打造从亚太到非洲的“自由走廊”。日本与印度的互动越来越频繁。
2012年底,安倍第二次上台后不久便提出“菱形包围圈”战略,“菱形”的四点分别为美国夏威夷、日本、印度和澳大利亚。
“日本一直在做印度的工作。在安倍上台后,西太平洋和印度洋成为日本的地缘战略目标,印度则因此被视为一个重要的外交抓手。”吕耀东说,“日本谋求与印度的合作最主要是针对海上安保与防卫的合作,经济合作是次要目标。日本一直在加强海上防卫力量的建设,并设法与印度缔结更强大的安全联系。其主动为印度修建关键基础设施,并向印度出售水陆两用飞机和其他军事装备。企图在亚太地区的东面提高自我军事防御能力,西面拉拢印度成为合作伙伴。”
而印度方面也似乎开始改变以往一贯“不结盟”的外交根本原则,正朝着与日本和美国建立更深入和更具意义的伙伴关系迈出尚显稚嫩的步伐。美国《国家利益(TheNationalInterest)》杂志近日发文称,美国、印度、日本、澳大利亚已经是“准同盟”关系。当下,“印度洋-太平洋”已成为最受瞩目的地区架构,但该地区的波动也正在持续酝酿。
■野心勃勃的“狂想”
“此刻‘皮球’在印度手中。”姜景奎说,“长期以来,印度的首要目标是发展经济。莫迪政府上台以来更是希望印度成为世界制造的中心。在经济上,美国和日本给予印度的支持一直是有限的。印度这些年一直有自己的顾虑,所以迟迟没有跟美国、日本真正走在一起。”外媒称,日印两国当局近年来在外交方面的成就均令本国民众满意。但专家分析认为,印度和日本虽然有一定的利益聚合点,但双方的战略发展分歧也不容忽视。
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