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美国究竟如何做到“兵不血刃”打赢对苏冷战?

2016-05-12 10:06:21   澎湃新闻网

核心提示:在里根和温伯格这些坚定的冷战斗士看来,苏联只相当于美国经济总量30%的经济基础完全不配与美国平起平坐玩军备竞赛的游戏,如果苏联尝试追上美国,只会拖垮他们,这就给结束冷战提供了一种很现实的可能,美国仅仅依靠在国防上大笔投入花钱养兵,就能兵不血刃拖垮苏联。比起打世界大战,这将是一笔非常划算的投资。

MX和平保卫者式洲际弹道导弹,温伯格曾计划部署100枚,实际部署50枚后苏联就解体了。 资料图

本文摘自:澎湃新闻网,作者:阎滨,原题:里根时代的国防部长温伯格:美苏军备竞赛的推手(本文系节选)

温伯格根据里根的基本战略构想,制订的国防政策设想是做好备战,与苏联及其盟友打一场核战争或常规战争。这一目标要求投入巨额军费,建设一支强大的军队。

虽然里根在大选中指责卡特政府忽视国防,但卡特最后一个财年已经开始加强国防,把国防预算增加了5%以上,但温伯格来到五角大楼后还是认为这点增长远远不够,部长办公室传出话来,问各军种首脑还需要增加多少经费。经过了十年的军费紧缺后,对美军来说,这简直是2月份又过圣诞节。温伯格上台伊始就把继承自上一届政府的国防预算增加了20%以上,共和党控制的国会很痛快地批准了追加拨款。在当初批评温伯格的人看来,一度令人畏惧的“大刀卡普”已经变成“大勺”了。

在温伯格时代,军费支出实现了美国和平时期史无前例的增长,温伯格追加了预算后,第一个财年的国防预算略高于GDP的5%。但军方认为,如果真要实现里根在竞选中承诺的重整军备目标,那么军费预算就应占到GDP的6%——7%,这是当美军最乐观的预期军费支出极限。但他们没想到,温伯格随后真的将军方最乐观的预期变为了现实。

温伯格计划从1982年财年开始,在制定军费预算案时,将通货膨胀的净增额、经济复苏附加项和其他增补也包括进来,未来五年军费预算将实现每年7%的连续实际增长。后来的5年中,美国军费支出实际达到了每年平均增长7.8%,约占GDP的6.6%,这是20世纪和平时期,美国持续时间最长、增幅最大的军费增长期。1986年和1987年是扩军的巅峰时期,此后国防开支开始逐渐减少。最终,里根的八年中,军费支出大约花掉了2.4万亿美元。

按照1990年美元价格计算,温伯格时代平均每年军费支出接近2900亿美元,70年代平均每年才2100亿美元,60年代包含越战战费在内,每年2400亿美元,50年代含朝鲜战争战费,每年1950亿美元,而40年代含二战战费才2400亿美元。可见当时美国在军备竞赛中花的钱有多么疯狂。

美国联邦行政预算管理局主管戴维·.斯皮克曼曾说,温伯格提出的高达7%增幅的军费规划绝对超出了国家财政的承受能力,因为里根拒绝大幅增税,支出猛增而政府财政收入不涨,这将导致难以填补的预算赤字,这一计划遭到政府内财政保守主义者的激烈反对,但温伯格争取到了大老板的支持,里根拍板支持温伯格的计划,决定冒巨额财政赤字的风险。温伯格回忆里根曾对他说,如果要在平衡预算和增加军费开支以恢复和保持美国军事实力之间做选择,他将始终选择后者。

在里根和温伯格这些坚定的冷战斗士看来,苏联只相当于美国经济总量30%的经济基础完全不配与美国平起平坐玩军备竞赛的游戏,如果苏联尝试追上美国,只会拖垮他们,这就给结束冷战提供了一种很现实的可能,美国仅仅依靠在国防上大笔投入花钱养兵,就能兵不血刃拖垮苏联。比起打世界大战,这将是一笔非常划算的投资。因此,任何给苏联军备竞赛出难题的事情都值得花钱。

温伯格除了扩充军队员额、大幅提高军人福利待遇以吸引更多人当兵外,首先将对战略武器项目的投资摆到国防预算的优先位置。美国对战略武器的第一个支出高峰是60年代,第一代战略武器多数是那时制造的。60年代每年支出大约300亿美元,但70年代到80年代初,战略武器支出每年减少了一半以上,温伯格将年度费用迅速恢复到60年代的水平,将战略力量在军费开支中占比不到7%提升到1985年财年最高9.5%的顶点,他计划部署100枚可带10枚分导弹头的新式MX洲际导弹(最终实际部署50枚后苏联就解体了),全面更新核战争指挥控制系统,这是战略力量的神经中枢,电影《终结者3》中表现的就是70年代老式核战争指挥控制系统。温伯格对其进行了彻底现代化和加固,实现了计算机化和网络化,在遭到苏联突然袭击后,不至于完全失去反击的能力。战略轰炸机部队老式B52机队进行了全面现代化升级改造。同时,在B52服役25年后,美国战略空军在温伯格时代第一次装备了两个新型号轰炸机,B1和B2隐形轰炸机。此外,温伯格加紧研发部署弹道导弹防御系统,即所谓“星球大战”计划,苏联人很快发现,在战略武器方面,无论技术研发还是资金投入,已经追不上美国玩军备竞赛的步伐了。

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