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伊朗欲购歼10战机遭中国婉拒 下大单转购俄制苏30

2016-02-23 14:05:13   观察者网

大中东是世界的十字路口,更是俄罗斯的南翼,历来以来就是必争之地。还在苏联时代,苏联就积极插手大中东,甚至是以色列建国时代的主要支持者之一,当然后来转向支持埃及、叙利亚。

在20世纪前半叶的反殖、独立浪潮和寻求共同崛起的过程中,大中东形成两股主要政治思潮:泛伊斯兰主义和泛阿拉伯主义,前者以共同的宗教为基础,后者则是世俗的,以共同的民族为基础。苏联出于意识形态理由,主要支持以埃及的纳赛尔、叙利亚的阿萨德、伊拉克的萨达姆为代表的泛阿拉伯主义势力。西方支持的伊朗的巴列维其实也是世俗的。

但东西方都低估了宗教对现代社会的影响,伊朗伊斯兰革命打破了大中东地缘政治现状,西方转而支持宗教的沙特,这是大中东政治宗教化的开始,而苏联在被埃及的萨达特赶出来之后,继续支持泛阿拉伯主义的叙利亚和伊拉克。

苏联解体后,俄罗斯继承了苏联的衣钵。在新的地缘政治环境下,俄罗斯插手大中东依然有现实的地缘政治和经济利益,但战略重点和战术路线要与时俱进。外高加索的穆斯林分离主义受到逊尼派的直接支持,扶持什叶派的伊朗-伊拉克-叙利亚松散联盟有利于制衡逊尼派的沙特-卡塔尔的宗教扩张主义倾向。

在经济上,沙特是波斯湾最大的石油生产国,俄罗斯的石油产量与沙特不相上下,两家是自然的竞争对手。牵制沙特有利于俄罗斯石油在世界市场的占位,更有利于俄罗斯参与世界石油的定价权。

在文化上,什叶派的妇女地位较高,比如没有妇女必须蒙面或者不得在没有男性亲属陪伴下单独出门这样的规定,叙利亚的阿拉维派甚至容许过圣诞节和感恩节,伊朗的教育程度在大中东稳居前列,这些因素都使得与什叶派的接近也比较容易接受。

在军事上,哀兵必胜,长期受压迫情结使得什叶派的战斗力较强。黎巴嫩真主党是现代历史上第一支迫使以色列在没有取得军事胜利情况下停战的阿拉伯军队;叙利亚政府军在内战早期大批叛逃(主要是逊尼派官兵)之后稳住阵脚,近期凝聚力和战斗力见涨;两伊战争中的伊朗军队和革命卫队也在极端困难的情况下,顶住了装备精良得多而且受到沙特和西方大力支持的伊拉克军队的进攻,最后的反攻甚至进逼伊拉克南方重镇巴士拉。与沙特与阿联酋在也门的表象相比,俄罗斯支持什叶派的效费比似乎也更高。

还在伊朗受到禁运的时代,俄罗斯就与伊朗有军售关系。上世纪90年代,俄罗斯就向伊朗出售了3艘“基洛”级潜艇。进入21世纪,俄罗斯还向伊朗出售了10套“铠甲S1”和9套S-300防空导弹系统,由于禁运而停止交付,但现在禁运解除了,有说法已经交付。伊朗还有来源不明的大量俄制肩射防空导弹,包括SA-7/14/16/18。

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