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军事专家米哈伊尔·霍多列诺克表示:“安卡拉、利雅得宣布计划打击‘伊斯兰国’组织,自然另有目的。团结的西方很少有人会接受巴沙尔获胜,大马士革、俄罗斯享受军事胜利果实,甚至连伊朗也来分一杯羹。因为叙利亚无论地缘政治还是军事政治角度讲都太过令人垂涎。为了避免出现这种结局,就必须干涉。最终,巴沙尔、叙利亚的命运并不是在慕尼黑的谈判桌上决定。这个国家及其统治者的命运将会在战场上决定。我认为,无论是莫斯科还是大马士革,都难以轻易享受军事胜利的成果。如果叙利亚被侵略,俄罗斯被卷入武装冲突的风险就非常大。我想再次强调我方阵营的薄弱。如果不算被削弱的巴沙尔军队和伊朗、‘真主党’这样假想的盟友,我们在行动上几乎没有任何盟友。我们在叙利亚的军力和装备并不多,在遥远战区作战的能力有限。向那里运输大量军队和技术设备绝非易事。黑海海峡的门户钥匙在安卡拉手中,我们的战机要飞过伊拉克和伊朗领空,理论上讲,这扇门也可能会关闭。不过,这只是事态发展的最坏设想。在现实中,一切可能朝迥异的方向发展……”
报道称,俄罗斯政治研究中心第一副主任阿列克谢·马卡尔金说:“不排除爆发国际性冲突的可能性,但在当前情形下,还存在若干其他的重要因素。首先,阿萨德希望恢复自2013年便失去的对叙土边界的控制权。对他而言,由政府军直接控制,抑或是由临时盟友即库尔德人来掌控,都无所谓。倘若边境关闭,盘踞在北部的反对派将失去一切补给,对后者而言,这不啻为灭顶之灾。第二大重要因素便是‘伊斯兰国’所控制的东部军事重镇拉卡。无论是西方还是沙特,都希望在那里展开军事行动,然而,若无库尔德人的协助,任何行动都难以实施。因此,美国人开始与库尔德人谈判。这令埃尔多安深感不满。他明确表示,阿勒颇对他而言利益重大,至于拉卡,还需考虑。因此,巴沙尔希望抢得先机,在进攻阿勒颇的同时也封锁边界。这同样会令局势更为复杂。至于俄罗斯,西方愿意与之对话,但只是为了解决巴沙尔下台的问题。俄方因而处于两难境地:如果说服巴沙尔下台,就意味着自己在叙利亚以及整个中东地区影响力的急剧丧失。因此,俄罗斯将维系巴沙尔政权作为考虑的主要方案之一,更何况,万一巴沙尔依旧恋栈权力呢?从理论上讲,莫斯科可以考虑只让巴沙尔个人下台,保留与俄交好的政府。但要做到这一点谈何容易?叙利亚总统并非傀儡,他有阿拉维派的支持,他是在父亲去世后掌权的,并非是由外部势力扶植上台。倘若安卡拉仍选择在叙利亚境内展开行动,那么与莫斯科发生直接冲突的可能性非常大;如果土耳其只是从本国领土对叙空袭,则是另一回事了,莫斯科未必会向土耳其领土发动空袭,毕竟后者是北约的成员国,这意味着与整个北约对抗。一旦土耳其军队出现在叙利亚境内,冲突的可能性将迅速提升:俄罗斯的出发点在于,巴沙尔政府仍为叙利亚的合法政权(目前,在联合国代表叙利亚的仍是该政府人员),那么完全可以向这些军队发起打击。这将与北约无关,北约在叙利亚境内并无利益,而北约也无法干预土耳其在叙境内的行动。”
报道称,土耳其TOBB经济和理工大学的政治学家伊斯梅尔强调:“目前官方并未承认自土耳其境内向叙政府军队实施过袭击,但的确打击过库尔德人的民主联盟党所支持的武装派别阵地。安卡拉认为这是一个恐怖组织。至于是否在叙利亚境内展开地面行动,该问题已存在多时,很难定夺,毕竟程序相当复杂。土耳其是议会制国家,这一决定需由议会通过。如果政府能证明国家的领土完整面临威胁,那么就有可能。叙利亚战争已持续了数年,但土耳其方面并未介入,无论是地面行动还是空中打击。至于阿勒颇,它的失守会给土耳其带来诸多麻烦,即大量难民将涌入国内。这一因素也会影响议员们的看法。当然,土耳其军队能够在叙利亚取得重大战果,但我国军事专家认为,直接参与这场冲突可能会对国家产生不利影响。总之,一切都取决于时局对于土耳其的威胁程度。”
责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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