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作者:中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员,中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院教授张杰
根据国家统计局7月17日发布的2017年中国上半年主要经济发展指标显示,中国经济增速已经连续两个季度站稳在6.9%的较高位置,同时实现了连续8个季度经济增速保持在6.7%-6.9%之间。这透射出一个显著信号:中国经济稳中向好的基本格局已经愈加明显和坚实。2017年中国上半年的中国经济总体呈现出两大特征:一是稳的格局愈加巩固,二是好的态势愈加明显。
与以往依赖出口导向和外需驱动为主不同,2017年上半年中国经济稳中向好的趋势更多地依赖于中国内生经济增长动力。目前,中国经济也已经逐步过渡到了以内生驱动为主的经济发展道路上来,站在了全新的经济发展周期起点上。
首先,中国内生型经济发展方式格局初现。当前,中国经济结构已然呈现出一系列内生增长模式的典型特征,首先,以服务业为主导的内生经济增长格局更加明显。2017年上半年服务业增加值增速高于第二产业1.3个百分点,服务业占国民经济比重达到54.1%,高于二产业14个百分点。其次,由于国内需求结构的升级,我国中高端制造业内生动力显著加强。2017年上半年高技术产业和装备制造业同比增长13.1%和11.5%,增速分别高于规模以上工业6.2个和4.6个百分点,所占规模以上工业比重也达到了12.2%和32.2%。与此同时,2017年上半年,规模以上工业企业利润同比增长了22.7%,增速高于去年同期16.3个百分点;规模以上工业企业主营业务收入利润率为6.05%,同比提高0.45个百分点;规模以上服务业企业的营业利润也保持了两位数的增长。可见,在内生增长模式驱动下,中国经济增长的质量和效益也得到了进一步提升。
其次,以消费为主导的内生型经济发展方式得到进一步确立和强化。中国以消费主导的内生型经济发展模式得到不断加强,从具体消费数据看,一方面,消费升级类商品销售增长较快,其中,文化办公用品增长11.8%,体育娱乐用品增长17.1%,家具增长13.4%,建筑及装潢材料增长13.9%。另一方面,创新型消费的引领力得到增强,主要表现在:新产品不断涌现且市场份额不断提升和以共享经济为主的新型消费方式快速发展。从动力机制上看,2017年上半年,全国实际居民人均可支配收入增长7.3%,为我国培育和壮大以消费为主导的内生经济增长模式奠定了坚实的宏观基础;同时,中国的消费升级还表现出了向三四线城市以及农村地区下沉扩散的重要特征,这为中国以消费为主导的内生经济增长模式的形成奠定了更为广泛、也更为坚实的微观基础。
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