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中国迎战每天10亿快递大考 其他国家快递业怎么样?

2017-05-27 09:44:54   环球时报

【环球时报报道】编者的话:古希腊哲学家德谟克利特说,动物如果需要某样东西,它知道自己需要的程度和数量,而人类则不然。这句话用在网购上再合适不过。“外星人”马云最近预测,中国每天10亿件包裹的时代将在8年内到来。依靠人力维持的传统快递业必定无法满足“人类天团”迅猛增长的需求,只有智慧物流才是终极解决方案。几年后,当无人驾驶车队穿梭于公路,当机器人出现在你家门口,并递上包裹时,请不要张大嘴巴。现在,它们正在向地球人走来。

记者张妮

“失败是成功之母,但成功往往是失败之父。大家记住,我们必须改革”。马云近期在杭州“2017全球智慧物流峰会”上说这番话时,他指的“我们”是中国所有的物流企业。他认为,中国物流业用十年时间赶超了美国近一百年的努力,堪称世界奇迹。十年前中国的包裹量是美国的1/10,现在是美国的两倍。中国去年包裹量为313亿只,今年会达到365亿即每天1亿只。不超过8年,一天10亿个包裹的小目标就将实现。“这个小目标对于今天中国物流行业的冲击之大超过大家想象。我高度关注了物流和快递行业,我发现绝大部分公司组织没有准备好、人才没有准备好、技术没有准备好、眼光格局没有准备好。”

马云认为,每天10亿只包裹只是本世纪前段时间的一个开始。按照今天物流公司的人才体系和思考格局,无法满足地球人的需求。“未来真正的物流一定是数据化的。物流公司一定是一家技术公司。物流公司必须高度关注技术人才、管理人才、文化人才,引进现代管理制度。物流公司只有联合作战,才可能解决每天十亿个包裹的问题。”

中国物流与采购联合会会长何黎明表示,智慧物流是社会资源的整合者,我国货运车辆空驶率达30%左右,仓库闲置率平均为15%,有些地方高达30%。物流互联网将打破企业边界和信息不对称,实现对整个物流资源特别是闲置资源的充分利用。目前,大量物流设施正在通过传感器接入互联网。比如全国的重卡已有超过400万辆安装了北斗、GPS定位系统,还有大量集装箱、仓库、货物等接入互联网。另外,当前快递行业从业人员的缺口达20%左右,劳动力工资也在持续上涨,智慧物流也是紧缺的人工的替代者。未来5到10年,机器人使用密度将达到每万人5台左右,彻底改变传统物流基因。

菜鸟网络CTO王文彬告诉《环球时报》,菜鸟想做的是打造一个开放的智慧物流平台,结合第三方物流合作伙伴,把大数据、全局化、柔性化变成智慧物流解决方案,放在物流云上对外输出,与合作伙伴共同使用。他认为,中国物流业刚刚开始进入智能时代,未来5年是智慧物流的加速期。无人驾驶车队、无人机是接下来会发生的。智能代收在未来5年会变成主流,中国城市中可能40%-50%的比例都将是智能代收。比如通过智能驿站代收,在一些小区设置配送机器人的技术已相对成熟,甚至汽车后备厢也可能变成代收点。

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