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官媒:若美韩对朝采取全面军事行动 中国将军事干预

2016-02-17 07:28:23   环球时报

中国需加强东北军事部署防半岛生乱

韩国总统朴槿惠16日上午在国会发表演说,谴责朝鲜“极端挑衅”,宣称开始商讨部署萨德反导系统意在威慑平壤。朴槿惠还罕见地使用“(发展核武会)加速朝鲜政权垮台”的激烈字眼,舆论认为这标志着其对朝政策的彻底改变。

美国在半岛周围的军事部署持续增加,核航母、攻击性核潜艇、战略轰炸机已经或将要到来,美可能对朝实施“外科手术式”军事打击的推测开始在舆论场上流传。尽管不少分析人士认为这更像是心理战,但“半岛的紧张局势在出现质的升级”,以及“爆发严重军事冲突的可能性也在随之增加”却被大多数人认同。

中国反对半岛生战生乱的态度十分鲜明,但最终朝核问题能否和平解决不取决于我们一方的努力和意志。中国应当对半岛的最坏情况开展周密准备。

由于各方不听中国劝告,中国在半岛局势生变直至出现战乱时不需对各方承担道义责任,我们做战略准备的出发点首先应是维护自己的国家利益安全,这一点中方要有勇气对各方讲清楚。

对于朝鲜,中国应坚决支持安理会通过更严厉的制裁决议,并认真对决议内容加以实施。中国需要对尽力摧垮朝鲜继续研制核武器和战略导弹的能力做出贡献。无论平壤对此有多大意见,我们都不应动摇。

对于韩国,要明确表达我们反对部署萨德系统,如果韩国不听劝阻坚持部署,中国就有必要参考俄罗斯对东欧国家部署美国反导系统时所做的那些回应。中国届时需在东北亚方向部署更多突防能力更强的导弹,并对部署的萨德系统进行最高级别战略盯防。

对于美国,我们需捅破窗户纸说亮话,我们就认为萨德系统主要是冲中国来的,也认为它围绕半岛的其他军事部署很大一部分指向中国。中国的反应应当是全方位的,包括继续较大比例增加军费,加快战略导弹的研制和部署,增加先进导弹的数量,以维护中国可信的威慑力。

半岛万一生战,中国民意将支持国家根据中国安全受到威胁的程度来决定采取什么行动。中国公众最关心战乱不能越过鸭绿江,这包括不能有污染、首先是核污染扩散进来,也不应有难民潮涌入。除此之外,中国人不希望看到三八线被军事行动打破,会支持国家维护东北亚的现有格局。

一位学者对环球时报说,一旦美韩联手对朝鲜实施外科手术式打击,朝鲜还手的可能性极大,韩国将蒙受损失,驻韩美军基地也未必安全。朝韩美三方都需为此付出各自的代价。如果美韩突破三八线对朝采取全面军事行动,那它们就需把中国军事干预的可能风险考虑进去。我们支持这位学者的分析。

需要指出,当初六方会谈失败,对美朝应各打五十大板,美国作为攥着半岛问题钥匙的大国,责任更大。从亚太大战略的角度看,朝核危机久拖不决是美国为控制东北亚、给中国崛起添乱做的一个局,中韩是友好国家,我们都不可掉入具体细节,忘了这个总视角。

中国需要加强东北亚方向的军事部署,提升快速反应能力,这会让各方在轻举妄动之前都多一分冷静。中国应让各方相信我们维护自己国家利益的决心坚定不移。至于中国的国家利益在哪里?相信各方都能看得懂。

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