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美要把第一岛链交给日本?拿中国说事,日美各怀鬼胎!

2017-09-25 08:23:34   

参考消息网9月25日报道 据日本共同社报道,去年7月离任日本陆上幕僚长的岩田清文9月15日在华盛顿的研讨会上透露,美国正在研究若在南海和东海与中国发生军事冲突,美军将暂时转移至关岛基地,而连接冲绳、台湾和菲律宾的“第一岛链”防卫任务则委托给盟国日本等的方案。

资料图片:美军出动核动力航母和核潜艇在钓鱼岛附近海域与日本举行联合军演

近年来,在地区安全热点问题不断升温的背景下,美日基于同盟框架,迅速加强在西太平洋的军事合作。日本自卫队前高官在华盛顿所提出的战时美军将第一岛链交给日本防守的设想,自然会让强调盟友要承担更多责任义务的特朗普政府听起来顺耳,为日本争取更多来自美国政界和舆论的支持,在“战略传播”上可圈可点。但听起来有意思不代表做起来没问题。

日本承担不起的“小目标”

从政治上来看,这种设想对美国和日本的弊端都非常明显。美国“离岸平衡”和“相对超脱”的身份对其在西太平洋地区的影响力贡献甚多。如果美国“采纳”日本盟友的建议,在战时将西太交给日本,那么在平时美国的亚太政策也会受到日本相当大的影响甚至绑架,这势必引起本地区各国,不仅包括中国,也包括韩国等美国盟友的忧虑和反对,甚至质疑美国在亚太存在的正当性。此外,这种“移交”的前景也表示出美国难以提供真正的地区安全产品,难兑现其和平时期许下的安全承诺,将动摇美国在亚太的战略基础。

长期以来,日本将美日同盟视为其安保政策支柱,为此不惜在诸多方面向美国作出让步,并不是为了战时给美国断后和挡枪。相反,日本坚持与美国的同盟,恰恰是为了在美国的保护伞下乘凉,而保护伞的价值主要在危机和战争中体现。如果美国只撑起晴天的太阳伞,打雷下雨就收伞走人,日本对美政策的合理性就需要打上问号了。

这种设想也不符合日本社会经济的现实。在战时如果出现美军“转进”,日本“打掩护”的局面,日本自然成为“众矢之的”,把多年积累的财富甚至国家命运都赔进去。即使日本退役将领发表此番言论是想借支持盟友的名义在和平年代为防卫省和自卫队争取更多经费,也会给日本社会和经济带来沉重负担。毕竟,在日本对于本土反导、周边防空都倍感压力的情况下,要建设一支在第一岛链内“独当一面”,攻防兼备的作战力量,并不是一个“小目标”。

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