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朝核问题已生质变 朝鲜已有跟美国“赌命”的筹码

2017-08-11 08:57:46   侠客岛

朝鲜正在制订对关岛包围射击的方案。你没看错,是朝鲜声称要主动攻击美国。

其实,美朝之间的话语的“核战争”早已开始——

特朗普总统在高尔夫球俱乐部警告朝鲜,“不要再威胁美国”,否则将遭遇从未有过的“炮火和怒火”;随后,朝鲜就发表了要以火星-12攻击美国关岛的消息;美国国防部长马蒂斯则非常罕见地说,朝鲜再挑衅美国,“将终结其政权”。

怒火

美朝之间的怒火似乎正在升级。包括美国的民众也认为,朝鲜的核武是个“严重威胁”。但市场反应却比较平静——看上去在大家看来,金正恩和特朗普还是在打嘴仗,炮火一时半会儿起不来。就像美国国务卿蒂勒森说的,“没有什么大事”。

事实上,美朝最近一轮的博弈从7月就开始了。7月4日和28日,朝鲜在一个月之内进行了两次远程导弹发射,导弹射程甚至可以覆盖纽约、伦敦等大城市;美国不少媒体发出评论说,“承认吧,现在朝鲜的导弹可以打到美国本土了”。

是的,对于特朗普政府来说,虽然他们不承认给朝鲜划过红线,但摆在眼前的挑战是,朝鲜可能真的对美国形成了核威慑力。如果实现了弹头的小型化,朝鲜就是一个具有事实上核打击能力的国家。

更令人感到惊奇的是,朝鲜不仅怒怼了美国,还批评了俄罗斯。朝鲜中央社今天发出评论,称因为俄罗斯拒绝承认朝鲜发射的是洲际导弹、认为朝鲜发射的是“中程弹道”,属于完全看不清形势的大国自负。这样的画风,的确令外界为之侧目。那么,朝鲜到底想干什么呢?

回应

其实,朝鲜最近对美国的“叫板”,最直接的理由就是朝鲜对自己的核导能力越来越自信了。三次核试验、两次远程导弹发射,朝鲜的核导能力最终引起了美国的正视。某种意义上,朝鲜当下的行动,也是对不断升级的国际制裁的“回应”。

可以说,现在朝核问题的性质已经发生了根本性的变化,从“朝鲜有没有核武”的问题,发展成了“朝鲜会不会使用核武”。朝鲜突破了美国的底线和禁忌,但现在朝鲜有了跟美国叫板、玩“胆小鬼游戏”的筹码——在国际关系理论中,这个形象的比喻意味在于,冲突双方如果都为了显示自己不惧冲突的姿态而拒绝让路,结局就是迎头相撞,两败俱伤;如果一方在最后关头选择退让,选择退让的一方会被视为“胆小鬼”,声誉受损,不过却避免了惨烈的冲突和更大的利益损失。

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