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西班牙专家:国际新秩序稳定离不开中俄

2017-08-09 16:10:58   参考消息网

核心提示:文章称,西方应该承认,现有国际秩序并不完美。要想就新秩序达成一致意见,必须将中国和俄罗斯包含进来。

参考消息网8月9日报道 西班牙皇家埃尔卡诺研究所网站发表该所所长查尔斯·鲍威尔的文章《自由主义国际秩序有未来吗?》称,今天人们面对打造新国际秩序的挑战,但关于这个秩序赖以生存的基本原则,并没有形成明确的共识。西方应该承认,现有国际秩序并不完美,因为没有对新兴大国,尤其是中国的崛起予以足够关注。要想就新秩序达成一致意见,必须将中国和俄罗斯包含进来。

西方主导的秩序在衰落

文章称,英国脱欧和特朗普当选美国总统,这两件事情为已经十分复杂的自由主义国际秩序增添了明显的不确定因素。

在政治学者罗伯特·卡根看来,当前国际秩序摇摆不定不仅仅是因为诽谤者的破坏,更是因为创建者的犹豫不决所导致。民粹主义的崛起和对全球化的排斥,很大程度上解释了脱欧派的胜利和特朗普的当选,同时反映西方国家对当前国际秩序的严重质疑。

根据分析,大部分美国社会舆论认为,美国从1945年开始设计、资助和进行军事支撑的秩序已经不能很好地为美国国家利益服务。另一方面,其他新兴国家尤其是中国却从现有秩序中获益。因此,特朗普的“美国优先”战略很有可能将导致美国回避70年来一直履行的全球责任。

中国成为全球化的代表

文章指出,何为自由主义国际秩序?根据美国普林斯顿大学政治学和国际关系学教授约翰·伊肯伯里的经典定义,“这是一个开放的、建立在规则基础之上的秩序,体现为联合国等机制和多边主义等法规”。

伊肯伯里认为,以预先规则为基础的自由秩序与以对立集团或者影响力范围划分的自由秩序之间存在明显不同,在后者中,权力是决定国家行为的唯一因素。与某些人的乐观看法相反,冷战的结束并没有终结对国际秩序运行原则的相反看法。俄罗斯和中国则认为西方国家使用双重标准,而且我们也知道美国及其盟友对塞尔维亚和伊拉克的入侵没有得到联合国的认可,这也是对它们维护的国际秩序的破坏。

文章称,国际秩序经济层面的变化更为明显,这主要是冷战结束后全球化加速所导致。事实上,全球经济秩序自世界贸易组织创立以来,因为中国和俄罗斯的加入,已经变得非常自由化。它也许是当前国际秩序中最具包容性的部分,因为它允许非创始成员的完全加入。从这个角度来说,特朗普当选美国总统后,中国成为自由贸易和全球化的代表,而美国的保护主义日益强大,这是一个奇怪矛盾的现象。

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