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特朗普赢得大选或刺激原油生产 油价应声大跌

2016-11-09 16:34:59   汇通网

汇通网11月9日讯——周三(11月9日)亚欧时段,油价大幅下挫,美油交投于44.41美元/桶附近,跌幅约为1.27%;布油交投于45.51美元/桶附近,跌幅约为1.15%。美国大选正式结果显示,截止至北京时间15:30,希拉里合计赢得218票,特朗普合计赢得276票,特朗普所或选票输已超过270票门槛,确定当选为美国总统。

而特朗普获胜,引发市场恐慌情绪,油价曾一度跌至三个月低点。

驻新加坡的能源咨询公司JBC Energy的主管Richard Gorry称,由于市场对不确定性的恐惧情绪,如果特朗普当选为美国总统的话,金融及大宗商品市场将会出现大幅波动。当然,油市也不例外。
在竞选期间,美国共和党总统候选人特朗普曾承诺,若当选为总统,那么将会全面放松对美国石油、天然气和煤炭生产方面的管制。并且,还声称,他会投放50万亿美元以促进这些行业的发展。这一举措,可能会巩固美国在国际上的产油大国的地位。但是,这又引发了一个新的问题,那就是,这些举措是否会影响到美国能源的价格呢?
过去十年,美国原油产量急剧飙升,削弱了OPEC在国际油市的主导地位。并且,国际油价连续两年录得暴跌。低油价本身同时也是美国页岩油增产的重要阻力。许多分析师称,特朗普获胜将会看到能源期货卖盘增多,因为他鼓吹页岩油增产是保持美国能源独立性地位的关键。而美国页岩油增产,无疑会令油市供给过剩压力加剧,从而打压油价。
此外,尽管OPEC与非OPEC各主要产油大国声称会削减原油产量,但是,市场对OPEC真正实施减产行动的能力表示质疑。当前,油市供给持续过剩的局面难改,令油价继续承压。
北京时间16:41,美原油12月期货现报44.37美元/桶,布伦特原油1月期货现报45.49美元/桶。

责任编辑:穆启春 CN063
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