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朝鲜“试爆氢弹”疑点重重 当量为何这么小?

2016-01-07 08:11:30   环球时报

原标题:朝鲜“试爆氢弹”疑点重重当量为何这么小?

【环球军事报道】朝鲜6日宣布“氢弹试验成功”的消息,就如同核爆引发的地震一样,迅速震动全球。氢弹向来号称联合国安理会五大常任理事国的“独门武器”,无论是理论还是制造都存在极高门槛。印度在该领域倾注多年心血,也未能获得国际认可的成就。那么朝鲜真的已掌握氢弹技术了?

据韩联社6日报道,这次朝鲜宣布氢弹试验后,韩国情报部门首先表示质疑。通俗来说,氢弹又称热核武器,是原子弹的升级版,属于第二代核武器。它利用核聚变原理,可释放出比核裂变大得多的能量。氢弹爆炸时,首先引爆内部的小型原子弹,利用裂变释放的核能引起聚变材料发生次级聚变反应。这不仅对氢弹的制造工艺提出挑战,更需要理论和设计上的创新突破,相关知识在国际上属于“绝不外传”。据称,世界仅有两种氢弹构型美国“泰勒-乌拉姆构型”和中国“于敏构型”。

由于氢弹在理论、结构和制造工艺方面的极高挑战,五个核大国进行第一颗氢弹爆炸试验时往往“一切从宽”,为确保核聚变能顺利进行,通常会填充足量的核材料,导致爆炸当量相当大。1951年5月美国首次氢弹原理试爆时,爆炸当量就达22.5万吨,1952年11月1日第一颗氢弹的当量更是高达1000万吨;苏联第一颗氢弹的当量为40万吨;英国第一颗氢弹试爆时不太成功,但当量也达到30万吨;中国的氢弹原理试验当量30万吨,1967年6月17日空投的首颗氢弹当量为330万吨;法国1968年8月的第一颗氢弹当量为260万吨。各国在验证氢弹技术和设计理论充分可行后,才推动后续的氢弹小型化和轻量化设计,以方便安装在导弹和飞机等运载工具上,并用来之不易的有限核材料制造尽可能多的核弹头。

除了五个核大国外,被认为“半只脚踩进热核国家门槛”的另一个国家是印度。1998年印度宣布接连进行多次核试验,其中第三次属于印度首次热核试验,爆炸当量4.3万吨。不过外界对这次核试验数据的真实性提出很多质疑,尤其是爆炸的当量过小,西方普遍不认同印度已经掌握氢弹技术。

相比以上国家,朝鲜6日核试验的当量小得多。韩国监测到这次核试验引发的地震震级为4.8级,小于第三次核试验时的4.9级。理论来讲,5级地震的能量释放相当于3.2万吨TNT当量,地震等级每0.1级能量相差1.41倍,4.9级地震相当于2.2万吨当量。韩国国情院的评估认为,朝鲜这次核试验当量为6000吨,还不及第三次核试验时的7900吨,因此朝鲜试爆的可能是加强型原子弹,而非“货真价实”的氢弹。

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