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官媒:大搞"柔性台独" 台海将回陈水扁时的地动山摇

2016-06-01 07:12:10   

社评:两岸冷淡已成定局,民进党须止步

据台湾媒体报道,海基会与海协会在“5·20”之后仅仅保持了传真机和电话的线路畅通,大陆海协会对海基会的传真均未回应,电话也只有人接起,无实际沟通。两会交流显然陷入停滞。

随着民进党上台,蔡英文拒不承认“九二共识”,也无两岸同属“一中”的表示,导致大陆与台湾的机制性交流无法继续,两岸关系冷淡已成定局。由于蔡英文和民进党短期内接受“九二共识”几无可能,台海关系的冷淡很可能持续很长时间,这是两岸社会都不得不面对的现实。

大陆要求的现状民进党当局不肯接受,希望它至少能做到不从蔡英文所说的所谓“现状”继续后退,在“柔性台独”方面变本加厉,逼近人们通过直觉就能感知的台海局势红线。

两岸关系冷淡或许是台海以及整个地区都能勉强承受的,尽管这会让两岸和平统一来得更慢些,但历史进程中的曲折就是这样。岛内一些人至今认为台湾可以摆脱大陆的影响独自存在,或许他们再需要一段时间和一些挫折认识这种想法的不切实际。

蔡英文极力主张台湾经济需克服对大陆的依赖,更多依靠美日,以及搞新南向政策,加入区域组织,从而彻底改变“依附大陆”的结构。那么不妨让未来几年验证一下,台湾经济游离大陆去世界流浪,到底能把它吃得多白多胖。

历史的轮盘早已转了过来,连美国都注重与中国大陆经济合作,蔡英文却要台湾经济独树一帜,朝区域经济中心乃至全球经济中心之一相反的方向奔跑,那么我们就等着看民进党的本事了。

然而有一样民进党当局必须搞清楚,经济上“新南向”也好,朝东去也好,都没关系,但政治和文化上的“去中国化”决不可以。

一旦民进党被执政冲昏了头脑,误判他们搞“柔性台独”大陆只会忍气吞声,从而大肆行动,则台海重回陈水扁时期的地动山摇就只是时间问题了。

民进党需要有一个基本判断:大陆反“台独”的决心十分坚定,包括强大军力在内的大陆实力已经排除了外部势力针对台海做决定性干预的可能性。“台独”的战略空间已不存在,民进党如果把“术”当“略”来玩,大陆必将出招打击之。

对大陆来说,我们打败了陈水扁那一轮“台独”的猖狂表现,给了“台独”一次沉重教训。现在面临规范民进党行为的新一轮斗争。这一轮斗争进行得越平静,越有可能给“台独”造成内伤,彻底瓦解它对部分台湾民众的影响力。两岸的机制性交流已近停止,接下来还有很多交流可以降格,挤压民进党当局的国际活动空间亦可作为备用手段。

两岸面临一段长时间的冷淡,它有可能升级为对抗。大陆需做好两手准备,既致力于维护台海和平,也要对我们认定的“台独”行为“露头就打”,直至动用《反分裂国家法》,确保民进党执政不致对两岸的深层联系造成大破坏。两岸联系的疏远不符合台湾民众的根本利益,相信这一点最终会影响岛内社会的人心向背。

责任编辑:李东舰 CN031
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