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首次出席中国国庆活动,安倍有何考量?

2017-09-30 11:03:04   海外网

摘要:安倍选择在此时参加中国大使馆举办的国庆招待会,突出自己改善中日关系的能力和积极作用,将给日本民众一个印象,安倍有能力掌握全盘外交政策,有能力控制同中国的关系进程,还应该相信安倍和自民党。

当地时间2017年9月28日晚,日本东京,中国驻日大使馆于新大谷饭店,举办庆贺中华人民共和国成立68周年暨中日邦交正常化45周年招待会,日本首相安倍晋三出席并致辞。(图源:新华网)

9月28日晚,日本首相安倍晋三首次参加中国驻日本大使馆在东京举行的中国国庆招待会。安倍下车以后,一路小跑,赶到站在新大谷饭店门口迎接他的程永华大使面前招呼寒暄。而且,安倍此行阵容庞大,陪同安倍的高官包括:外相河野太郎、防卫大臣小野寺五典、文部科学大臣林芳正、复兴大臣吉野正芳等多名内阁大臣。安倍首相为什么携如此庞大的内阁高官群体参加中国国庆招待会?其中释放了哪些信号?

首先,这释放了安倍政府要改善中日关系的愿望。在改善中日关系方面,我们往往认为日方要想改善中日关系,那么就需要做出全面的改善,包括在历史问题、国际政治问题、军事安全问题等方面,对中国作出全面友好的姿态,不再挑起事端,不再搞围堵中国的国际联盟。其实这是对日方政策结构的一种误解,安倍要改善日中两国关系,直接的目标是希望能恢复日中两国首脑互访机制。所以,我们应对安倍政府改善日中关系的这种政策,有一个清晰明确的判断和总体的把握。

第二,安倍急于要改善中日关系,有国内现实政治的考量。安倍在9月28日宣布解散众议院,10月22日提前举行大选。本来安倍以为这种提前大选的安排,可以使自民党和自身稳操胜券,但是没有想到,半路杀出来个小池百合子,搅乱了安倍固有的大选计划。就目前的日本国内政治形势而言,自民党获得众议院选举第一大党的地位,仍然还有很大的希望,但是要想获得众议院超过半数议席,形势险峻。

对安倍及其自民党而言,小池百合子组建“日本希望党”本身并不可怕,因为毕竟刚刚组建,羽翼尚未丰满,不可能拿到太多的选票。在野党民进党也不足虑,因为民进党内部政治派别林立,组织和人心比较涣散,在民众当中缺乏威望,近期的支持率只有10%左右,安倍对此根本不必担心。但是就在最近几天,日本国内政局发生了戏剧性的转变,不仅自民党的一些议员开始退党,转而加入希望党,而且民进党党首前原诚司表示,要和希望党合作,民进党内有希望当选国会议员的人,可以以希望党的身份参加竞选。这种方式虽然还不是两党合并,但已经向两党合并的方向迈进了一大步,两党合流将对自民党造成非常大的压力,并且以希望党的旗帜,有可能会夺得相当一部分自民党的选票和众议院议席。这使安倍感到芒刺在背,压力山大。因为安倍曾经表示,如果拿不到众议院的过半数议席,自己将宣布辞职。

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