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中美欧不太可能成新的“战略大三角”

2017-05-31 14:10:15   环球时报

中国国务院总理李克强31日起访问德国,他不仅将参加中德总理年度会晤,还将赴布鲁塞尔出席第十九次中国-欧盟领导人会晤,并正式访问比利时。中国总理早就安排好的欧洲之行,这次格外受关注。

刚与特朗普一道参加了北约峰会和G7峰会的默克尔总理28日针对美国发的一些牢骚,这两天正传得沸沸扬扬。默克尔说“我们(与美国)能彼此完全信任的时代在一定程度上已经过去”。她还说,“我们欧洲人必须真正掌握自己的命运。”

而此前媒体盛传特朗普会见欧盟委员会主席容克等人时曾说,“德国真坏,太坏了”,他指责德国向美国每年出售数以百万辆的汽车。

美国总统特朗普25日与欧盟领导人举行会晤

美德关系显然出了问题,特朗普就贸易批评德国,默克尔强调欧洲人“必须掌握自己的命运”都不是第一次了。尽管很多学者认为,美德两国闹别扭与中日这样的关系出问题“性质不一样”,但华盛顿与柏林分歧还是比较深刻的,双方利益摩擦在加剧,感情也在疏远。美德关系冷淡还可能会带动欧盟与美国的分歧加深,对这一切特朗普的个人因素虽然起了很大作用,但总的来看,今天的美欧矛盾正变得越来越真实。

感受到与华盛顿关系的危机,德国和欧洲应该会更加重视北京。欧洲人对华合作的积极性可能会更高一些,这样的牵动性变化几乎不言而喻。

然而欧美和欧中关系的凉热再怎么变化,中美欧也很难成为新的“战略大三角”。欧美是盟友关系,德国是美军在海外驻军第二多的单一国家,美对欧洲的安全控制十分牢固,欧洲即使不完全听命于美国,它在政治和军事上也很难扮演对美战略牵制的角色,它的独立性有限,对美依赖成了一种惯性。

中欧合作首先只能在经济上不断深耕,当然,由于在当下国际竞争中,经济是重点,中欧经济上不断走近,也会产生一定的战略影响。

另外,自由贸易、经济全球化、气候变化这些中欧最谈得来的领域,又在一定程度上超越了经济合作的范畴。它们是当前国际秩序很基础也很实在的要素,延续这些领域的成果或者毁掉它们,世界是不一样的。

然而中国应当以平常心发展中欧关系,无论中国还是欧洲,都不太可能成为对方面对美国时的“一张牌”。至少在现阶段,中欧扩大合作有着广泛的正当性,但它是相对独立的一个系统,与中欧各自同美国关系的联系不应被夸大。

英国脱欧以后,欧盟变弱了,它有求于中国比中国有求于它或许会变得更突出一些,但这个趋势不会走得太远。最近,欧盟表示要调查匈塞铁路项目,宣布对中国钢铁征收反倾销税等等,手一点都没有软。

中国吸引欧盟的最大原因还是我们的实力增长,这个因素的驱动力这些年一直大于美欧关系变化所产生的影响。美欧这一轮的龃龉首先源自经济利益纠纷,只要中国作为新兴市场不断增容、壮大,我们的吸引力就不光是针对欧盟的,它对发展中美关系同样有着强劲的效果。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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