新闻 > 评论
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China

对美朝密谈做好两手准备

2017-05-12 13:43:54   环球时报

近日,“美朝人员在欧洲秘密接触”的消息经韩国媒体传出后,让关注朝鲜半岛局势走向的人们不淡定了。这一颇具转折色彩的美朝1.5轨互动,以及蒂勒森承诺“四不”(即不寻求朝鲜政权更迭、不寻求搞垮朝鲜政权、不寻求加速南北统一、不寻求为跨过“三八线”找借口)后,让舆论将焦点再次聚集到朝鲜身上,平壤接下来会打出什么牌?

事实上,朝鲜长期以来一直希望能跟美国恢复接触甚至谈判,“拥核自重”是朝鲜的一个手段,“拥核”之后如果换来的是全世界的封锁和严厉制裁,朝鲜发展核武的“价值”就会打折扣。毕竟对于朝鲜来说,即便有了核武器,外界也不会承认其有核国家的身份。而且,核武解决不了朝鲜当前遇到的最大问题——老百姓温饱和改变民生。因此,我认为朝鲜“拥核”后最大的可能,就是拿着更大的“筹码”与美国谈判,这是平壤的一个重要策略。

但是,美朝这次接触能不能最后谈成,中间最大的变量是美国。

过去,在克林顿和小布什政府,美国人都很认真地和朝鲜进行过谈判,但断断续续十年“核谈”,朝鲜还是走回“拥核”的轨道,所以美国人说朝鲜骗了他们。当然,朝鲜的说法是美国改变了条件,不遵守之前的承诺,在去核和核查问题上加码。双方都指责对方,导致最后“去核”没能执行下去。自此之后,朝鲜核试验步伐加快。尤其最近两年,朝鲜核试验和导弹研发明显提速。

在特朗普执政后,看得出来是真想解决朝鲜核导威胁问题,因为华盛顿方面的评估是在4年内朝鲜很可能会拥有洲际导弹能力,这就意味着平壤手里握着能打到美国本土的武器。而在美国眼里,朝鲜这样的国家能够威胁美国本土,这无疑就是第二次古巴导弹危机。现在是特朗普第一任期,换句话说,如果真的是这样,特朗普在自己第一任期内就可能面对一场严重的危机。古巴导弹危机告诉我们的是,如果美国认为一个“邪恶国家”能够威胁自己的本土,那美国不惜跟超级国家开战。

所以,特朗普政府这次解决朝鲜核导威胁问题的决心不容怀疑,这也是美国结束对朝“战略忍耐”的根本原因。

当前,特朗普政府的策略是先进行“极限施压”,然后再看施压的效果如何,最后决定是采用军事战争手段抑或外交谈判。现在看,美国的评估是先选择和平的方式,朝鲜如果能够接受美国的信号,那么两家就能谈起来。如果朝鲜真的愿意弃核,特朗普请金正恩吃汉堡的场景不是不可能发生。这将成为特朗普的一大成绩和政治资本。

上一页1/2下一页
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

朝鲜和美国在欧洲接触对上话了?我外交部回应

2017-05-10 07:44:05

朝驻英大使:将在金正恩选择的时间进行第六次核试

2017-05-10 11:27:11

日本要引进美制“战斧”巡航导弹打朝鲜?(图)

2017-05-11 09:44:41

美中情局设“朝鲜情报中心” 首次针对单一国家设立

2017-05-12 01:26:37
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11157580/20170512/30517384.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/24 11:37:34

Powered by China
China