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媒体:中国今起在南海军演一周释放了什么信号

2016-07-05 20:06:19   央视

中国海事局日前发布消息称:“7月5日至11日,解放军将在海南岛以南西沙群岛水域进行军事演练。”按照中国国防部的说法,这是一次例行的年度演习。

南海军演是例行性演习

由于军演时间和菲律宾非法提起的仲裁案公布结果的时间非常接近,因此引发诸多猜测。对此,军事专家指出无需过度解读。从历史来看,中国海军在南海进行军事演习,几乎年年都有,而且规模也不小。比如2015年12月,海军三大舰队的主力在南海某海域组织海空多科目实战化训练,此次演练是海军2015年年底前组织的一次动用兵力多、科目设置复杂、实战氛围浓厚的海上实兵演练。

2015年7月,中国在南海进行大规模军事演习,出动一百多艘舰艇,几十架飞机,还出动了战略火箭部队(去年还叫二炮)、战略支援部队等等。再往前,2014年9月,由海军、空军、第二炮兵联合举行的代号为“联合行动—2014A”实兵演习,在南海某海域成功举行。

进行军事演习是主权国家的权利,也是很多国家的习惯性做法。随着军事装备的升级,通过演习来进行磨合,提升联合作战能力是非常必要的。海军军事学术研究所研究员张军社分析指出,中国军队在自己领土上进行例行性军事演习无可厚非,不针对特定目标。演习主要目的在于通过实战化训练,提高中国军队维护国家主权安全的能力,增强履行使命任务的能力。他表示,个别西方媒体诬蔑此次演习在时间和地点上的选择“具有挑衅性”,根本是颠倒黑白,中国军队是在自己领土上进行演习,完全不同于个别国家不远万里来到南海,举行针对中国的海空军事演习,实施军事恫吓,煽动南海局势紧张的做法。

△2015年7月军演资料图

也是一种军事准备和表态

不过,从宏观和常识的角度讲,要说军演和南海局势一点关系都没有,那也未必。张军社指出:“演习会对企图侵犯中国主权安全的外部势力起到必要威慑作用。”当下,域外大国插手南海局势的做法越来越明显,一些国家甚至公开介入南海争端,推动南海问题国际化,菲律宾非法提起的南海仲裁案就是典型的例子。尽管中国外交部此前曾多次明确表示,菲律宾提请的南海仲裁案不符合国际法,但一些域外大国仍然到处煽风点火。外交部发言人洪磊7月4日在回应相关提问时就明确指出:所谓仲裁庭只是某些势力的代言人。应菲单方面请求建立的仲裁庭对本案没有管辖权,仲裁庭即将作出的裁决,是扩权、滥权的非法产品,不具任何法律效力。

从这个角度讲,在国际仲裁庭的背后,其本质问题是大国博弈。而大国博弈的本钱是什么,人人都清楚。

面对复杂的大国博弈,在南海进行军事演习某种程度上确实是一种军事准备,也是一种表态。“西沙军演本身就是威慑”,中国南海研究协同创新中心研究员邢恩硕分析称。

军演并非针对南海邻国

话又说回来,这种震慑主要并非针对南海邻国,而是针对插手南海事务的域外大国。这一点从南海演习的内容可以略知一二。比如针对2015年的那次演习,军事问题专家尹卓曾这样介绍说:南海周边国家海空军实力有限,电子战能力也不强,若未来南海爆发战争,大都不会超过此次演习的规模。但由于域外大国可能会介入,中国海军很可能遇见复杂电磁环境下的海空对抗,因此,2015年的演习专门设置了复杂电磁环境。

可以预见的是,此次在西沙群岛的演习,针对的是整个南海海域,目标是捍卫九段线内所有中国岛礁安全。虽然演习不针对任何特定国家,但对相关国家必然具有一定威慑效果。

责任编辑:赵逸 CN039
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