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金九爽约 A股银十成色几何

2017-10-14 07:17:53   

9月行情难以突破的关键点,一是等待宏观经济和行业公司数据的进一步推动;二是等待进一步强力改革的信号。去年以来,很多周期产品价格大幅上涨,市场对产品价格的预期比较充足,但8月经济数据整体偏弱,如果没有进一步的需求拉动或更严厉的供给收缩,此类产品价格缺乏上涨动力。未来投资的方向就是要不断优化结构,抛弃基本面差的个股,拥抱优质股票,在未来方向总体乐观的前提下,市场的波动并不可怕,反而提供了优化结构、调整持仓品种的机会。

波动带来调仓机会

中国证券报:9月市场环境其实并不悲观,大盘月线收阴反映了什么?

秦晓斌:9月行情难以突破的关键点,一是等待宏观经济和行业公司数据的进一步推动;二是等待进一步强力改革的信号。去年以来,很多周期产品价格大幅上涨,市场对产品价格的预期比较充足,但8月经济数据整体偏弱,如果没有进一步的需求拉动或更严厉的供给收缩,此类产品价格缺乏上涨动力。

未来投资的方向就是要不断优化结构,抛弃基本面差的个股,拥抱优质股票,在未来方向总体乐观的前提下,市场的波动并不可怕,反而提供了优化结构、调整持仓品种的机会。

魏颖捷:9月主板与创业板出现分化,年初以来推动沪综指慢牛的金融、资源等蓝筹品种的预期修复基本完成,如四大行和大型股份行的PB重新回到1倍以上,由影子银行和资产质量恶化预期所引发的持续破净基本修复,未来股价上涨需要靠盈利能力的持续复苏,如净息差重回上行通道等,但在金融严监管和脱虚向实的大基调下新的上行预期仍未形成,股价回到震荡概率大。钢铁煤炭等供给侧改革受益板块的股价基本回到2011-2012年水平,最新商品价格与当时也大致相同,股价进一步上升的触发逻辑是需求端的稳定和去产能力度的持续,同时行业集中度提升对ROE的正贡献有待检验。与过去小盘股事件驱动和估值中枢提升的上涨模式不同,年初以来蓝筹股的上涨都是盈利改善和估值修复主导,在利好预期初步兑现后市场需要新的逻辑,因此9月沪综指的阴十字更多是上升趋势中的休整或换挡。

李国旺:沪指月线收阴微跌,反应了投资者对“十一”长假的情绪,假期太长,未知的不确定因素较多,部分投资者选择获利了结。因为股票市场运行出现的指数变化,不仅是经济运行好坏导致的业绩影响,它还受投资者节日情绪、市场平均估值、政策取向、货币与股票供求关系的影响。2017年9月30日央行突然宣布对普惠金融实施定向降准政策,投资者普遍理解认为,央行向市场放水了,股票供应与货币供应的紧平衡情况会好转,这种认知和群体情绪,充分反应在10月开盘后的第一个交易日,股市出现普涨。为什么不能持续冲高?毕竟股票的供应还保持相对高速进行中,定向降准央行明确是对准普惠金融、用于扶持中小创新型企业,同时防范货币通过消费信贷等流入地产或股票市场。因此,10月份不大可能出现大的连续冲高的行情,但经济基本面总体向好的背景下,也没有力量造成股市大跌,股市胶着状态恰好反应了当前经济运行、政策组合、群体情绪、市场估值和货币与股票供求关系。

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