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A股有望进入活跃期

2017-10-12 09:12:54   

半年线和年线指标通常被用来衡量个股的中长期走势,有“牛熊分界线”之称。目前,大批A股正在跨越这两条牛熊分界线。

统计数据显示,截至10月初,A股市场有三成个股站上年线,逾六成个股站上半年线。种种迹象显示,随着市场交投情绪回暖,活跃个股越来越多,A股已悄然进入活跃期。

突破半年线个股持续增多

据上证资讯统计,以250日均线(年线)来计算,剔除上市未满一年的个股后,10月初,沪深两市共有三成个股站上年线。而以120日均线(半年线)计算,剔除上市未满半年的个股后,10月初,已有超2000只个股站上半年线,占比63.61%。这意味着,中长期持有这批个股的资金,绝大多数已处于盈利状态。

反观大盘指数,却在此期间窄幅震荡。由此可见,重个股轻指数已渐成市场潮流。9月的板块走势也验证了这一点。以新能源汽车、通信为代表的新兴成长板块接连崛起,题材概念热度迅速提升。

以申万行业来划分,对比8月底和10月初的个股半年线数据,通信和计算机行业的增速明显。最新数据显示,约40只通信股在8月底之后站上半年线,增速超110%。其中不乏中通国脉、武汉凡谷、二六三、光迅科技这类持续走强的个股。计算机板块中,10月初站上半年线的个股数量,较8月底同样实现翻倍。新增名单中,科大国创、卫士通、新国都等个股,9月至今累计涨幅超20%。

增速翻倍的还有医药、汽车和国防军工板块。值得注意的是,虽然近期国防军工板块走势平平无奇,但站上半年线的军工股却从8月底的9只升至10月初的33只。其中,华舟应急、耐威科技、海特高新、振芯科技等不少个股已出现了一波明显反弹。

市场活跃度有望继续提升

对于超六成个股站上半年线这一现象,一家中型券商的投顾受访时表示,这间接反映了市场情绪的转暖,活跃资金的投资风向已有所改变。

9月以来,受市场存量资金紧缩的影响,主流指数窄幅震荡的次数居多。这期间,市场从“一九分化”转变为“三七分化”,前期涨幅较大的权重股出现回调,成长股热度则迅速提升。这无疑吸引了活跃资金的目光。近期,包括计算机、医药生物、通信在内的一批超跌板块均出现反弹,推动不少中小盘股震荡走高,顺利突破半年线。该投顾预计,此前超跌的绩优中小盘股或将迎来反弹。

川财证券分析师李皓舒也认为,三成个股站上年线说明市场的活力指数有所提升。此外,创60日新高的个股数量也在持续增多。从这些量化指标中可以看出,很多个股已出现反弹迹象,市场风险偏好正稳步提升。在此背景下,短期内成长股的活跃度有望继续提升。(上证)

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