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“漂亮50”这一波能创新高吗

2017-10-13 07:32:53   

连续三个交易日,大盘都是窄幅震荡,而昨天,沪指在一度下跌超过15点的情况下,尾市明显回升,最终仅下跌2.18点,以3386.10点报收。此外,深市也同样是微幅下跌。

尽管大盘走势平淡无奇,但白马股的行情仍在继续。昨天,上证50指数逆势上涨0.40%,技术形态明显强于其他指数。那么,这一波白马股的行情,能否推动“漂亮50”再创今年的新高?

关于白马股行情,达哥之所以用“漂亮50”来代指,主要因为白马股并非只局限于上证50成分股。而且,上证50成分股也并非全都算得上是白马股。只不过,在讨论白马股行情走势的时候,参考上证50指数的走势也没有太大问题,毕竟这是挑选沪市规模大、流动性好的最具代表性的50只股票组成样本股,以便综合反映沪市最具市场影响力的一批龙头企业的整体状况。

前天,达哥在“道达号(微信号:daoda1997)”文章中分析过,近期题材股炒作明显降温,取而代之的就是白马股出来护盘,这确实有点风水轮流转的感觉。回顾今年市场风格转换的过程,5月份到7月份这三个月时间,是白马股表现最好的阶段。接下来,白马股陷入调整,周期股开始转强,整个市场进入到题材轮炒阶段。从上证50指数的走势也看得出来,8月份之后,上证50指数陷入较长时间的震荡调整。虽然8月下旬,上证50出现过一波创新高的走势,但当时主要是工行等几只大银行股大涨推出来的,整个9月份,上证50指数都处于阴跌状态。

而本周开始,上证50指数终于开始重新抬头向上,而且技术指标也出现“金叉”信号,这不得不让人憧憬,这一波行情,上证50指数会不会创年内新高?

如果仅仅看指数点位,上证50指数前期高点为2766.79点,昨天报收于2718.35点,距离已经很近了,后市确实有挑战前期高点的可能。但是我认为,要想形成有效突破的话,多方还需要加倍努力,如果仅仅依靠银行股来冲一下,其他白马股不形成群体效应,那么难度还是不小的。

为什么这么说?其实现在上证50指数这个点位,正面临重要的压力位,刚好位于2015年7月27日上证50指数大跌9.04%、出现破位大跌的位置。熟悉市场的读者都知道,2015年7月份,正是当年股市异常波动第一波之后出现的第一个密集成交区。而当时这个密集成交区,也正是当年“国家队”资金进场打出来的平台。

而2015年7月27日,上证50指数跳空大跌9.04%破位之后,当时留下的大阴线,直到今年8月份才收复。不过,当时上证50指数也并没有站稳,9月份又陷入调整。所以,如果这一波白马股行情,上证50指数能够创出新高,并且有效突破2015年7月份平台的话,对于未来白马股的行情将是极大的鼓舞。

那么,白马股行情如果要延续,究竟哪些类型的白马股将是重要的推动力?近期盘面已经非常体现得很清楚了,那就是“喝酒”、“开车”、“吃药”、“逛超市”,以及“买家电”等,更笼统地说,主要还是以消费类个股为主。而这些个股,并非都是在上证50成分股中去找,深圳主板,中小板,甚至创业板,同样有白马股存在。除了消费类个股外,金融股中的银行、保险,从中长期看,走势也非常强。就昨天的行情而言,尾市沪指之所以能够收回,也正是银行股和保险股在护盘。

昨天跌幅榜上,有一只前期的明星股——正海磁材。前不久,正海磁材因为被养老金账户建仓,股价大幅上涨。不过,昨天正海磁材发布公告,公司前三季度业绩大幅下降,同比降幅95%~100%。正是由于这个公告,正海磁材昨日大跌7.86%。从前期高点16.18元算起,正海磁材近期累计跌幅已经高达26.8%。所以对于机构还是不能迷信啊。

沪深300指数仓位参考

昨日仓位:六成

今日仓位计划:六成 (张道达)

根据国家有关部门的最新规定,本手记不涉及任何操作建议,入市风险自担。

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