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供需改善乳制品行业或迎拐点 机构看好4只龙头股

2017-10-12 07:32:54   

■本报记者 莫 迟

在白酒板块延续强势的背景下,昨日同属于食品饮料行业的乳品板块也有不俗表现,其中,西部牧业实现涨停,麦趣尔、光明乳业、伊利股份、天润乳业等个股昨日涨幅也均在3%以上,成为市场中的一大亮点。

资金流向方面,昨日板块内共有9只个股实现大单资金净流入,其中,伊利股份(16313.91万元)、光明乳业(3032.57万元)、皇氏集团(2867.43万元)、西部牧业(1050.34万元)等4只个股最受资金青睐,昨日大单资金净流入均超过1000万元。

而通过对机构观点梳理发现,支撑乳品板块走强的因素主要有三方面。

首先,行业景气度逐步回升。受益于消费升级、产品结构持续优化、三四线城市需求爆发,今年以来乳制品行业供需结构出现明显改善,包括太平洋证券等多家机构更是直言2017年乳制品行业将迎来拐点。

其次,长假期间需求强劲,龙头企业经销商出现缺货现象。中信证券表示,根据调研,双节期间伊利无论是高端产品还是低端产品,供货均出现紧张情况,部分地区普通纯牛奶出现了断货现象。

第三,受白酒行情带动,资金对消费类板块配置意愿增强。

不过,受制于原材料价格的上涨,今年以来乳制品行业也出现较强的成本压力,其中,伊利股份便公开表示,受全球原料乳主产国产量回落、主进口国需求上升以及国内白糖、纸类包装材料涨价等因素影响,今年乳企生产成本压力大于上年。

对此,分析人士表示,我国乳制品标准的重构以及乳企生产成本提高,使得部分中小乳企减产或退出生产,有助于龙头企业扩大市场份额,提升行业集中度,同时也将改善行业供需情况,利于行业中长期景气度回升。

在此背景下,机构普遍看好板块以及相关龙头股的投资机会,其中,川财证券表示,随着我国乳制品标准的重构,消费者对国产乳制品品牌信心将逐步提升,利于国产品牌的发展,建议长期关注。而太平洋证券也表示,随着下半年行业需求复苏持续,板块景气度提升,随后上市乳企业绩改善,市场预期也随之提升,乳制品类公司股价有望迎来戴维斯双击。给予乳制品行业“买入”评级,重点推荐伊利股份、光明乳业、三元股份、天润乳业等4只龙头股。

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