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避险升温 金价企稳迹象明显

2017-10-12 07:32:54   

10月以来,国际金价企稳回升,近几个交易日更是加速反弹。财汇大数据终端显示,截至10月11日记者发稿,芝商所(CME)旗下纽约商品交易所黄金期货交投最活跃的12月黄金合约价格当月累计涨幅近0.5%,位于每盎司1290美元上方。值得注意的是,此前几个交易日,美元指数持续走低。

国庆长假期间,国际市场主要受到了美国税改方案公布以及中国对普惠金融实施定向降准政策的持续影响,风险偏好情绪较高,避险情绪较弱。主要表现在美国和香港股市明显上涨,并创历史新高;对经济敏感的有色金属价格也明显上涨;而避险资产美国国债收益率则持续上升。

民生银行分析人士指出,整体看,美国和中国的政策调整使短期国际市场对经济的乐观预期有所上升。这也带动了国际市场对美联储将在12月再次加息的预期,根据彭博联邦基金期货的数据显示,目前市场对美联储12月加息的预期已经上升至80%附近,而在9月初时市场预计12月加息的概率还不足25%。在对中美经济乐观预期上升而美元指数持续反弹的背景下,上周大部分时间国际金价仍处于向下探低的压力之下,但上周五国际金价盘中出现反转信号,显示短期金价有企稳迹象。

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