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避险情绪弥漫支撑 黄金短期仍有上行动力

2017-10-11 10:32:54   

由于避险情绪弥漫支撑,黄金一举突破1280美元/盎司关口。本周金融市场将迎来美联储9月货币政策会议纪要,同时部分美联储官员将发表讲话,届时将为美联储12月是否会加息提供线索,投资者需密切关注。

上周五美国劳工部公布的非农数据显示,美国9月季调后非农就业人数减少3.3万,是7年以来首次录得负增长。美国9月失业率录得4.2%,为2000年12月以来新低,低于预期和前值的4.4%;投资者重点关注的9月平均每小时工资年率为2.9%,高于前值的2.5%。此次9月非农就业人数录得负增长,主要是受到飓风艾尔玛以及哈维的影响,市场普遍预测9月非农新增就业人口无法反映美国实际的劳动力市场状况,因此尽管上周公布的9月非农新增人口录得负增长,也难以动摇市场对美联储12月加息的预期。并且美国9月失业率和薪资数据双双告捷,这提振了市场对美联储12月加息的信心。在9月非农报告公布后,美联储12月加息25个基点至1.25%-1.5%区间的概率上升10%至91.7%。

本周市场重点关注的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要将于本周四凌晨公布,本周公布的会议纪要将显示,多数官员认为导致近期通胀速度放缓的影响因素是暂时性的,预计讨论的重点仍是通胀和美联储的菲利普斯曲线框架,可能会对年底加息预期构成重要指引,尽管通胀放缓,但加息的热情仍在继续,市场普遍预测本次会议纪要投资者焦点将集中在美联储官员们对低通胀的担忧程度,预计会议纪要还将包括有关缩表的讨论;除此之外,还将有大量美联储官员讲话,包括卡普兰、卡什卡利、埃文斯、威廉姆斯、鲍威尔和布雷纳德等,他们的讲话也将为美联储年内是否会再次加息提供一些线索,这在某种程度上为美联储收紧政策提供支撑,一旦12月加息预期大增,黄金价格恐承压下行。

但短期内,印度和中国的实物黄金需求增加,这在一定程度上将为金价提供支撑,同时国际政局形势不稳给黄金价格提供了一定向上动力。

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