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IMF再次上调中国经济增长预期

2017-10-12 07:12:54   

经济日报华盛顿电 记者高伟东报道:国际货币基金组织(IMF)10月10日发布《世界经济展望》更新报告指出,全球经济活动的回升力度在继续加强,在中国、日本和美国及亚洲新兴市场经济体等周期性回升加快的情况下,全球经济增长预计将从2016年的3.2%上升至2017年的3.6%和2018年的3.7%。

值得关注的是,IMF将中国2017年GDP增速预期上调至6.8%,将中国2018年GDP增速预期上调至6.5%。IMF指出,上调中国2017年经济增速,反映了中国2017年上半年的强劲增长及外部对中国产品与服务更加旺盛的需求;上调2018年经济增速,主要是IMF预计中国政府将保持足够的扩张性政策组合,以实现2020年较2010年实际GDP翻一番的目标。

IMF认为,从2016年下半年起,全球经济活动趋于活跃,2017年上半年,这一趋势进一步加强。新兴市场和发展中经济体今明两年的经济增长预计将提速,这得到了外部因素改善的支持,包括有利的全球金融环境和发达经济体的复苏。中国和亚洲其他新兴经济体的增长依然强劲;拉美部分大宗商品出口国、独联体国家和撒哈拉以南非洲经济增长仍面临困难,但已出现了一定的改善迹象。发达经济体的增长在2017年普遍提速,美国、加拿大、欧元区和日本的经济活动日趋活跃,但其中期增长前景不佳。

报告预计,发达经济体经济增长在2017年、2018年分别为2.2%、2.0%,这得益于欧元区、日本和加拿大更强劲增长的带动。同时,IMF预计英国2017年的增长为1.7%,上半年英国经济活动的放缓超出预期;IMF预计美国2017年、2018年的经济增速分别为2.2%、2.3%,主要原因是美国的经济政策特别是财政政策存在巨大不确定性。

IMF预计新兴市场和发展中经济体2017年、2018年经济增长率将分别达到4.6%、4.9%,IMF认为,这主要得益于对中国更强劲增长预期的推动。

报告认为,全球经济增长面临的下行风险主要包括:一是全球金融环境的收紧更为迅速、收紧幅度更大,其形式可能是美国和其他地区的长期利率走高,将对那些较脆弱的经济体产生不利影响;二是新兴市场经济体出现金融动荡,如果全球金融环境突然收紧及美元相应升值,会使部分新兴市场的金融风险暴露出来,从而对那些与美元挂钩、具有高杠杆和存在资产负债表错配的经济体造成压力;三是发达经济体的通胀持续低迷,如果国内需求下降,可能会导致中期通胀预期下滑,这将延长并强化疲软的通胀,会减弱央行降低实际利率的能力,从而更难在经济衰退中恢复充分就业;四是国际金融危机以来在金融监管方面取得的进展普遍倒退,这可能对全球金融稳定产生负面影响;五是经济政策转为内向性,如果各国转向保护主义,将减少贸易和跨境资本流动,损害全球经济增长;六是非经济因素风险,包括地缘政治紧张、国内政治纷乱、治理薄弱和腐败带来的风险、极端天气事件、恐怖主义和安全问题等,都会使经济增长脱轨。

报告强调,无论是发达经济体还是新兴市场和发展中经济体,都需要采取有效政策提高潜在产出,需要开展结构性改革并推出有效增长的财政政策,以提高生产率和劳动供给。未来,结构转型需要推出全方位的政策,特别是围绕节省劳动力的技术变革和跨国竞争,各国应妥善应对,以减少调整的痛苦并为所有人提供机会。

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