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IMF上调多国经济预期独缺美国 特朗普表现不如预期

2017-10-12 00:51:39   

参考消息网10月12日报道 美媒称,国际货币基金组织(IMF)10月10日宣布对世界各国经济近期增长前景做出一系列上调,并称全球经济发展势头良好。但有一个显著的例外:美国。

据《美国新闻与世界报道》网站10月10日报道,IMF分析人士下调了对美国今明两年的近期增长预测——尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统承诺要通过税收改革、放宽管制和重新订立贸易协定推动经济实现3%以上的增长率。

资料图片:美国纽约第五大道洛克菲勒中心新华社记者王雷摄

IMF的最新一期《世界经济展望》预计,世界整体GDP今年将增长3.6%,2018年增长3.7%。2017年和2018年的预测均比之前上调了0.1个百分点。

据估计,美国今年将增长2.2%,它在2016年只增长了1.5%。欧元区估计会增长2.1%,它去年的增长率为1.8%。

据估计,日本、加拿大、俄罗斯、中国、巴西、撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲和低收入发展中国家的经济都将在2017年大幅反弹,许多国家的这个势头可能会持续到2018年。

但增长率的上调并非针对所有国家,包括美国。美国的GDP季度增长率刚刚在2015年首次达到了3.1%,但该国经济在今年开局不利,而且受到8月和9月登陆的几场飓风的持续影响,因此年增长率会退回3%以下。

自今年1月以来,美国经济今明两年的增长率预测数字已从2.3%和2.5%分别下调至2.2%和2.3%。这说明,该国经济在特朗普上台后的表现不像国际分析人士此前预计的那么好。

报道称,诚然,特朗普的许多经济举措要么尚未落实要么还没有充足时间产生效用。但就连那些举措也让国际社会质疑美国经济在未来几年里能否奔涌向前以及特朗普的一些措施会不会带来意想不到的后果。全球危机以后实现的金融监管改进普遍回落是特朗普经济工作计划的一大支柱,而IMF称之为对中期经济健康的威胁。分析人士指出,这样的举措不仅会影响到美国,而会“对全球金融稳定产生负面影响”。

责任编辑:任冲 CN062
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