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期债下跌空间有限

2017-10-11 10:32:56   

国庆长假后首日,国债期货市场承压下跌,至周二仍未摆脱弱势格局,持续振荡。在节后央行首日净回笼1800亿元和股票市场大幅上涨等的刺激下,期债市场短期承压。然而,从中期来看,当前期债市场走势仍将延续振荡格局,四季度10年期国债收益率整体处于3.5%—3.7%的区间运行。对于此,我们的逻辑如下:

定向降准不改政策基调

国庆节前央行定向降准的消息给市场带来一些扰动,我们认为,此举旨在引导资金脱虚向实、服务实体经济,并非大水漫灌式的放水,而是精准投放,给小微企业以更有利的政策支持。对于整个金融市场而言,流动性宽松幅度整体有限,货币政策环境仍将维持稳健中性。

节后首日央行净回笼1800亿元即给收益率带来较大程度上行压力的情况,可以给上述判断做验证因此,在现有政策基调之下,未来国债收益率仍将维持区间格局。定向降准政策兑现期在明年,对于市场更多表现为短期情绪上的扰动。

国内通胀压力不大

9月官方制造业和非制造业PMI数据的高于预期,和财新PMI低迷形成背离。近日公布的财新服务业PMI大幅下降,使得市场对于未来经济增长的预期再度分化。我们认为,PMI数据分化体现的是经济转型过程中的结构性失衡问题,加之上游行业的高利润率推动,上述分歧在所难免,但是总体而言,中国经济下行压力仍大。

近期房地产调控再度加码,在供给端充分释放的背景下,需求端的掣肘开始逐渐显现。对于未来的商品市场而言,工业品价格呈现单边上涨的可能性不大。节后以黑色金属为代表的大宗商品价格下跌印证了市场逻辑的转变。

从通胀层面而言,当前商品市场的价格波动虽然较大,但并未从生产资料向生活资料传导。加上高基数影响,年底前食品类价格同比大幅上行的动力不足。短期地缘格局大概率将以和平协商结束,油价仍将维持区间格局。因此,CPI年底前预计将维持温和走势,使得国债收益率不会出现大幅上升。

综合上述基本面的判断,国债期货市场仍将维持振荡。短期期债价格下跌较难形成趋势。随着节后国债一级市场发行回暖,期债价格将受到支撑。

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