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管涛:未来人民币汇率走势将双向波动1

2017-09-29 15:37:51   

中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员、前国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长管涛在27日召开的“北大光华思想沙龙之宏观政策研讨会”上表示,最近一段时间的人民币升值主要原因是境内市场力量驱动。他预计,未来的人民币汇率走势将双向波动。

观察人民币几个阶段的走势可以看出:刚开始是离岸人民币汇率升值带动在岸市场的升值,8月份以后逐渐是在岸本身的汇率走强。在管涛看来,最近一段时间的人民币升值主要原因是境内市场力量驱动。

对于汇率改革,管涛认为,当前人民币汇率双向波动、弹性增加,实现人民币汇率清洁浮动仍然是汇改的既定目标。现在是不是深化人民币汇改的时间窗口,需要综合权衡。不过,改革就会有不确定性,要做好预案。形势好的时候改革相对有利,形势不好的时候改革风险相对较大,要从最坏处打算争取最好的结果。他认为,广义的人民币汇率形成机制改革依然在有序推进,包括改进汇率调控机制、加快外汇市场建设,以及理顺外汇供求关系。

他预计,未来的人民币汇率走势将双向波动,远期市场美元对人民币仍然是溢价,显示未来人民币对美元是贬值的,很重要的原因是利率平价理论,高息货币未来是贬值的。同时,离岸人民币汇率CNH围绕在岸人民币汇率CNY是上下震荡的,双向波动,而不是长期的偏强或者是偏弱,表明市场没有明确的升值或者贬值预期。(金辉)

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