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“喝酒吃药”成节前资金标配

2017-09-29 10:12:51   

周四,A股市场继续呈窄幅震荡格局,沪指小幅低开后几乎横盘运行,深成指在中小创题材股带动下盘中一度红盘运行,但尾市回落翻绿。两市成交量较前一日略有放大,但仍为近期低位水平,反映投资者节前观望情绪犹浓。成交量低迷,一方面反映投资者节前情绪谨慎,一方面也反映市场并无恐慌情绪出现。

贵州茅台盘中再创历史新高

昨日是“十一”长假前的倒数第二个交易日,节前效应充分显现,盘面上看,黑色系大宗商品再度下跌,煤炭、钢铁等周期股集体下挫,以白酒为代表的消费股领涨两市,移动转售、芯片国产化、新能源汽车等概念相对活跃。截至收盘,沪指报3339.64点,跌幅0.17%;深成指报11031.4点,跌幅0.05%;创业板指报1854.73点,跌幅0.01%。沪市成交1820亿元,深市成交2595亿元,两市合计成交4415亿元,较上一交易日小幅放量。

食品饮料、餐饮旅游等消费股继续领跑行业板块,其中,白酒板块更是全面拉升,贵州茅台、古井贡酒双双创下历史新高。值得注意的是,龙头股贵州茅台大涨2.02%,收报518.46元,盘中最高涨至520.20元,再度创出历史新高。消费股的走强,主要是受到节日效应的提振,一方面是假期因素引发行业经营向好预期,另一方面则是受益于长假期间不确定性因素导致的避险需求上升,“喝酒吃药”已成为节前资金标配。

就白酒板块来说,其强势拉升的背后,除了节日因素外,更是行业的全面回暖。有业内人士分析称,从基本面角度看,在白酒企业上半年业绩高增长预期逐渐兑现的背景下,随着行业旺季的临近,部分高端、次高端白酒有望再度迎来量价提升的局面,2017年行业净利润或突破400亿元。从市场角度出发,在当前市场风格从成长向稳健切换的大背景下,消费蓝筹股估值重塑,白酒作为为数不多的景气度向上且业绩持续好于预期的行业,或进一步受到大资金的布局。

弱势震荡格局延续

小阴小阳的震荡走势是近期A股市场主要运行方式。通过数据可以发现,沪指从8月29日至昨日共计23个交易日,区间振幅59点,波动不到1.8%,这种长时间微幅震荡行情历年来较为少见。由于当下市场的盘局难以打破,不少投资者对后市处于迷茫状态。对此,中证投资认为,短期来看两市盘局依然难撼,但对待后市仍不必悲观。从过往经验来看,节后市场走势大多比较乐观,此时也是积极布局的一个不错时机。

“从中期来看,A股整体市场估值不高,大部分个股过去两年调整幅度较大,潜在盈利增长趋势依然稳健,对市场前景无需过度悲观。操作方面,可坚守盈利增长,精选大消费、优势制造,继续关注符合制造升级、消费升级趋势的大消费板块,精选已经深度调整的优质成长股。”中金公司表示。

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