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十一长假将至 机构看好持股过节

2017-09-29 09:32:51   

据上证所、深交所安排,10月1日(星期日)至10月8日(星期日)休市,10月9日(星期一)起照常开市,9月30日(星期六)为周末休市。也就是说,9月29日(明日)是最后一个交易日,从9月30日开始,到10月8日,A股市场将连续休市9天。

每逢长假,投资者都会头痛一个问题,持币过节还是持股过节呢?

市场人士指出,以何种方案过节,根本原因还是如何看待节后市场。而对打算持股过节的投资者而言,还要考虑节后的投资方向。

机构看好十月行情

近来,市场波动幅度减小,成交量也减少。本周二,沪市成交1590亿元,周三,沪市成交1690亿元,周四1820亿元。上一次沪市成交量低于1600亿元,还是7月3日的事。如此低的成交量,显示出一定的过节气氛。

不过,对于节后市场,机构是比较乐观的。

招商证券预计,国庆节后市场成交将恢复活跃。指数在近一个月震荡下行,目前可能处于一个短周期的调整尾声,市场很可能在不久迎来触底回升。叠加国庆节假期效应的影响,国庆节后市场回暖的概率较高,因此近期的回调反而是投资者提前布局的好时机。

安信证券认为,未来一个月,市场有可能迎来增量资金。预计10月内,市场机构抛盘数量有限,且资金面将维持宽裕格局,市场很可能将在10月迎来上涨行情。

有意思的是,统计数据显示,近十年来,在国庆长假后,沪指上涨的概率更大,10年中,8次上涨,仅2次下跌;平均涨幅达2.47%。

新能源股和5G股在风口上

那么,如果打算持股过节,选择什么股票呢?

近几日,虽然交易萎缩,局部热点却层出不穷,热闹得很。次新股,“次新+军工”板块,锂电板块,通信板块,都有不错表现。研究人士认为,通信、锂电都是属于有政策性利好,中期业绩可期的行业。

“2017年中国国际信息通信展览会”开幕。有关权威人士透露,为加快5G商业化步伐,明年将在全国重点城市开展实验,2019年计划在全国进行试商用部署。受此消息影响,27日,通讯板块表现不错。

东莞证券认为,5G技术的创新将推动新一轮大规模投资,产业链有望全面受益,其中包括无线技术和网络架构两方面。当下时点,选择业绩确定性较大,估值相对合理的5G主设备龙头及光通信板块。建议关注中兴通讯、亨通光电、中天科技、光迅科技和烽火通信等。

新能源板块方面,天风证券认为,在当前的主要矛盾下,供给端就成为限制行业发展的因素,而锂矿产能的扩张需要较长的时间周期,未来1-2年内供需关系会继续保持当前状态,资源端扩产不会造成供需的扭转。这个行业在目前的增长和估值下不存在高估的风险,也不存在反转风险,股价下跌是比较好的买入机会。

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