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税改预期带动美股小盘股复苏

2017-09-27 07:52:54   

今年以来,美股小盘股的表现远远落后于大盘股。代表美股小盘股的罗素2000指数自年初迄今上涨了6.99%,标普500则获得12%的涨幅。但最近罗素2000指数呈迎头赶上之势。罗素2000自上周五创出两月新高后,25日再次刷新历史新高至1453点,当日上涨0.08%至1451.95点。罗素2000指数9月至今上涨了3.32%。

同时,持有一篮子1772只股票的美国嘉信小盘股ETF(SCHA)自9月8日以来一路走高,25日该ETF价格触及52周高点,涨0.21%至65.90美元,较52周低点53.53美元上涨了23%。

税改预期重燃

美股小盘股在2016年年底的表现优于大盘股。在特朗普去年11月赢得大选后,小盘股飙升,罗素2000指数在2016年上涨19.5%,而标准普尔500指数上涨9.5%。其中很大的原因是基于投资者的预期,即特朗普承诺减少监管,大幅削减公司税,对于那些小公司来说尤其有利。

但在特朗普宣誓就职后不久,外界对税改的期望开始消失,因为特朗普政府和国会共和党人无暇从无法废除和取代“奥巴马医改”的拉锯战中脱身出来。

总部位于达拉斯的Hodges基金的首席执行官兼投资组合经理克雷格·霍奇斯在接受美媒采访时表示,那些正在消退的预期可能是今年小盘股表现不佳的重要原因。

罗素2000指数在2017年夏天出现下滑,8月低点较7月高点回落7%。但最近重新攀升至历史高位,表明市场对小盘股的兴趣重燃。有分析人士预期,美国总统特朗普再次推动企业税改革可能会引发小盘股复苏。

小企业或受益

分析人士指出,资金可能从大盘股(以科技股为主)撤出,并预期将介入在税改中获益的规模较小企业,美股小盘股可能会受益。

Jefferies分析师在一份给投资者的报告中写道:“就像去年一样,投资者对新的税收计划感到兴奋,因此上周有18亿美元流入了占总资产2%的小盘股。”

由于美国税收改革有望在今年年底前实现,小盘股再次成为值得关注的领域。Hodges基金的首席执行官兼投资组合经理克雷格·霍奇斯说,将公司税率从35%下调至20%或25%,“对小盘股公司来说是件大事”。他表示,特朗普政府在税改上取得进展的迹象或有助于引发小盘股的复苏,目前平均有效税率为31.9%的小盘股公司将是税改最大的受益者。

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