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聂梅生:房价贵背后是土地贵和钱贵 房企“拿地卖房”循环难续

2017-09-26 07:33:02   中国经济网

过去10年间,巨量资金争相涌入房地产行业,“炒房、蜗居、买不起房”等成为社会经济的热议问题。过去10年间,我国M2增加了4倍,总数达120万亿元,中国房地产每年的投资都超过10万亿元。

说到房价贵和房地产资金蓄水池如何引流,9月21日晚,在清华大学“洞悉支柱产业系列课程——中国房地产业首堂课”上,全联房地产商会创会会长、清华大学校友会房地产协会会长聂梅生表示,房价贵的背后是土地贵和钱贵,尤其银行贷款的表外资金一度把钱搞得很贵。接下来,将在建立房地产调控的长效机制中解决这些阵痛,防止系统性金融风险和资产泡沫的形成。

聂梅生称,据德意志银行统计,整个中国房地产资金体量高达30万亿美元,仅一、二线城市的房地产价值因房价上升而产生的财富增值是24万亿元,为2016年全国个人可支配收入总量的75%。

巨量资本固化到房地产的资金蓄水池后,要防止系统性金融风险和资产泡沫的形成,需要对这些资金进行合理引流。

“我前两天跟碧桂园聊,碧桂园实际上现在将相当大的精力和资源用在特色小镇上。虽然你看它的销售额可能今年也很大,有可能会超过万科,还有一些在做一带一路。”聂梅生说,“原来(开发商)每年卖了这么多钱,又去买地,结果把地价搞得特别高,地价高以后房价也特别高,是不是还要走向这样的循环?可能不是了。”

在聂梅生看来,一直以来,民间资本在房地产端的集中度很大,房企中民营占比超过80%,这种情况下民间资本,民企开发商可以成立产业基金,融入国家的一带一路、特色小镇、大健康这样的主导产业中。房地产行业的生态环境已经发生变化,农地入市和租售同权将对高地价和高房价产生冲击,要在今天的房地产生态中继往开来,抓住新经济增长特点。

第一个特点是平台经济。首先是政府平台,“一带一路”、PPP、特色小镇都是政府非常强的平台。其次是互联网平台,这是新经济增长的驱动力。再者就是行业协会平台,比如关于标准问题,政府只管强制性标准,行业标准全部放在行业平台制定,还有就是行业当中的规范,规范企业的评级与行为,沟通政府和企业的关系。

第二个是共享经济。消费端的草根已经崛起,意味着共享经济中C端的崛起和聚集。原来我们14亿人口一直被认为是劣势,共享经济把它变成了绝对优势,同时也促使我们对2B和2C重新思考。

最后则是要开放包容融入国际化的金融。融入国际化的金融并不见得像以前一样,(企业)出去以后买写字楼、酒店等房产,这是2011年-2015年的海外投资业态。2015年以后,我国海外投资部分已经进入整合投资阶段,基石投资人加入,从针对项目的分期融资走向分层融资,从LP走向GP,从项目集合基金走向持有型运营管理REITs基金,已经出去的钱在继续做这些事情,规模按乘数扩大。

聂梅生称,现在海外投资业态也在升级,比如说做持有型物业的平台,通过一带一路进入国际市场,不一定非要盯着美国或者加拿大,沿着一带一路到欧洲或者东南亚都是海外投资的方向,最后进入或收购国外的REITs平台,这是海外国际化经营的一条路。

而另有多位企业家称,拿地-建房-销售时代已经结束,新房市场天花板正在来临,未来的房地产市场,将是多元化业态并存、资产运营的时代,房企将在新经济增长特点中谋求新发展路径。

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