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美元多头压下“跷跷板” 黄金净多仓位十周来首降

2017-09-26 07:33:00   中国经济网

在上周结束的例会后,美联储宣布,将从今年10月开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表(即缩表)。此外根据美联储当日发布的报告,今年内美联储很可能还将加息一次,明年还将再加息三次。

由于市场对此预期较为充分,美元汇率在此前一周就得到提振,而此前持续走强的黄金价格则出现回落。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)最新公布的周度报告则显示,在截至9月19日当周,对此基金等大型投资者持有的黄金净多仓位出现十周以来的首次下降。

黄金多头开始观望

CFTC数据显示,在截至9月19日当周,对冲基金等大型投资者转为减持COMEX黄金净多头头寸,此前已经连续第九周增持。黄金净多仓从一年高位回落,较此前一周减少22284手期货和期权合约,至242650手合约。

此外,截至9月19日当周,对冲基金也减持了白银和铜看多押注。持有的COMEX投机净多仓位较此前一周减少7806手合约,至67341手合约,净多仓自逾4个月高位回落。持有的COMEX铜净多头头寸较此前一周减少21558手合约,至99729手合约,为今年7月以来的最低水平。

嘉盛集团技术分析师Fawad Razaqzada指出,随着美元多头回归,黄金面临下跌。由于美联储之前已表达了今年启动资产负债表正常化的意向,因此这个消息应至少被市场部分计入。另外,虽然12月再度加息的可能性攀升,尽管美联储小幅上调2017年GDP预测,但同时下调了通胀预测。与此同时,鉴于美联储热衷于进一步货币环境收紧,美元后市应可基本面获得支撑。在美元上行过程中,最大的输家可能是黄金。黄金无法产生任何利息和股息收入,而且还有储存成本。另外,黄金以美元计价,因此,当后者价值上扬,前者往往随之承压。黄金的唯一希望来自美元意外下跌或避险情绪激增,避险概念商品吸引力攀升。否则鉴于黄金技术面已因未长时间守住每盎司1300关口而严重受损,金价可能急剧回落。

美元走势仍存不确定性

市场分析师表示,展望未来,美元走势依然存在不确定性。而这也将影响到黄金等多种资产前景表现。

瑞穗银行外汇策略师哈拉里表示,美联储上周释放出了今年可能会有第三次加息的信号,这对美元来说是一个“小小”的提振。美联储已经改变了市场对美元的情绪,至少是在短期内改变了。但她也强调,并不认为市场会看到美元的持续大涨,更多的可能只是在一个区间内浮动。

CFTC数据还显示,在截至9月19日当周,英镑净空头头寸缩减至10161手合约,这是2015年11月以来的最低水平。

英国央行在9月14日的议息会议上释放强烈鹰派信号。英国央行表示,尽管英国脱欧存在很大的不确定性,但该央行大多数政策制定者认为,如果通胀压力继续加息,未来几个月很有可能会加息。哈拉里强调,这已经并且可能还将导致英镑后市的上涨。

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