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智能音箱挣扎“百万门槛”

2017-09-25 07:41:53   中国经济网

剃头挑子一头热,尴尬正在智能音箱身上发生。相比亚马逊Echo一年销售1000万台的天文数字,国内任何一个智能音箱企业“销售100万台”都是一个难以逾越的门槛,这里面有奋斗了近三年的京东科大讯飞,也有来势汹汹的阿里、小米、喜马拉雅……

灵隆科技是京东与科大讯飞的合资公司,这家公司运作的叮咚音箱面世已经两年有余,但对于销量讳莫如深,只能在“6·18”促销节这样的重要节点,拿出有些虚妄的增长率来表明信心。

灵隆科技CEO魏强在与亿邦动力网的对话中坦言,智能音箱市场从探索期到成长期,100万台是一个关键点。这是决定市场能够走向成熟的关键一步。

100万台销量,是一家企业所为还是整个行业集体努力,但无论哪个数字,看起来都不是那么理想。据调研机构Counterpoint估计,2017年中国智能音箱销量可能仅为200万台,而美国则高达1400万台。

更有分析机构持悲观态度,抛出一些价格低廉、智能含量不高的蓝牙音箱产品,真正谈得上操作系统层面的智能音箱可能年销量只有20多万台。

市场差距源于典型企业的拉动力,亚马逊Echo无疑是最大的被模仿者,这家公司的智能音箱去年卖掉了300万台,在降价销售的背景下,今年的数字预测将会达到1000万台。

而在中国,无论运作多年的叮咚音箱,还是新晋出炉的天猫精灵、小雅音箱(喜马拉雅FM推出),探索的性质都远远大于商业化目的,销量数据都是不可告人的商业秘密。按照京东的说法,叮咚音箱主导的智能音箱产品占据八成以上市场份额。结合魏强的“100万台愿景”,只能说明国内智能音箱市场整体销量确实惨淡。

结合在两大电商销售渠道检索发现,京东在售的各类智能音箱产品,市场价高于100元的,累计评价均没有过万;天猫直接显示月销量的天猫精灵和小雅音箱,截稿前分别为7545笔和627笔——这类数据不能完整反映出智能音箱的销量情况,但多少反映了销售情况的“初级阶段”。

叮咚音箱方面指出,京东将携手腾讯、百度、今日头条、科大讯飞、哈曼、飞利浦等上百家互联网企业和设备厂商组建智能音频行业联盟,试图建立音箱行业标准。

之所以智能音箱更像一场实验,还有一层原因是巨头意志。作为智能家居领域的构成,智能音箱因具备语音交互的便利性,逐渐变成新的家庭管理中枢,而倒退几年,这一位置站立的则是路由器甚至智能电视。

业内人士坦言,智能家居一直是互联网企业不愿意放弃的市场,试图通过一款核心产品,进而连接电视、洗衣机、冰箱、空调甚至电灯、净化器等所有智能家居展品。过去曾尝试手机App接入的方式,但效果不理想,需要与路由器做适配。现在人工智能的主攻方向之一就是语音交互,音箱又不会占据太大的物理空间,并且降低了用户的使用门槛(比如老年人和孩童不太擅长使用App,但通过讲话发出指令,人人皆会),亚马逊Echo的成功更让企业看到了市场机会,蜂拥而至在情理之中。

“但现在看来,考验企业的还是用户,一个指令处理不好,用户可能就会反感,无疑对后续销售带来困境。”上述业内人士认为,最关键的是,应用场景局限在内容推送层面,所谓的智能家居控制,还是个梦想,因为智能家居本身就没有规模效应。

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