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937家上市公司三季报预喜 资源类公司高景气度料延续

2017-09-25 07:37:53   中国经济网

截至24日记者发稿时,数据显示,两市已有1225家上市公司公布了前三季度业绩预告,披露进度接近四成。除56家公司不确定外,其中预喜公司(包括预增、略增、续盈和扭亏)家数达到937家,预喜比例达74.7%。分行业来看,钢铁、交通运输、轻工制造和有色金属等6个行业的公司业绩预喜比例在85%以上,食品饮料、房地产和金融类企业预喜比例在六成左右。而公用事业、休闲服务和综合三个行业的景气度处于低位,整体预喜比例不到50%。

整体来看,部分周期行业表现亮眼,以钢铁、煤炭、有色等为代表的资源类行业向好,三季度多家公司主要产品价格继续上涨,前三季度利润水平有望创新高。而化工、轻工等板块分化较为明显。公用事业、畜牧养殖等行业受成本、需求等不利因素影响表现较为低迷。此外,中小创三季度业绩预告显示,并购仍然是板块业绩增长的重要驱动力。

钢铁煤炭造纸向好

钢铁行业目前有9家公司公布了三季度业绩预告,披露进度约为三成。兰格钢铁研究中心行业盈利模型测算结果显示,三季度钢企主要产品吨利润水平均高于一季度和二季度。分产品来看,三季度方坯吨平均利润环比大幅提升,已经接近1000元/吨。线材、三级螺纹钢和带钢吨平均利润均超过1000元/吨。热卷和冷卷三季度吨平均利润环比增长数倍。可谓形势一片大好。

从目前公布的业绩情况来看,尽管部分公司前三季度净利增速较中报持平或略有降低,但由于行业三季度仍处于高景气期,钢企净利规模处在高位。产品结构中以线材为主的三钢闽光和韶钢松山从清理“地条钢”政策中获益,目前净利增速领先同业,分别为328%至378%、1652.6%至1652.6%。韶钢松山表示,预计前三季度实现净利17.5亿元;2017年以来在国家供给侧改革、淘汰中频炉以及整治“地条钢”等政策措施的大力推进下,钢材价格比去年同期大幅上涨,公司产线有效产能充分释放;同时,公司管理变革和降本增效成效显著,盈利同比大幅增加。长江证券钢铁行业分析师指出,今年以来广东地区螺纹钢均价超过全国均价200元以上,创9年以来新高。同时,四季度受北方地区环保减产限制,以往北材南下的不利因素将得到缓解。因此后市持续乐观。

目前公布三季度业绩预告的煤炭上市公司中,业绩预喜的达到9家,多家企业三季度预计扭亏,预喜比例超过八成。目前仅中国神华和露天煤业公布了其前三季度净利增速区间,分别为100%、95%至145%。不过,由于9月动力煤价格再度创出新高,焦煤由于下游钢企需求旺盛,价格持续攀升,不排除后续净利规模及增速会有所调整。

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