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大佬教你如何掘金游戏股 四角度找到下一个王者荣耀

2017-09-23 07:21:59   中国经济网

对于投资者而言,会不会玩游戏并不重要,其更关心的是如何挖掘那些 “爆款生产机”带来的投资机会,即发现那些优质游戏标的企业。

红利消失下的高增长

从今年开始,游戏行业“人口、IP、流量”三大红利效应在逐步减弱。但行业却能高成长,这是何故?

第一是人口红利消退。这表现为虽然游戏市场保持高速发展,但用户数增长趋于饱和。据伽马数据联合创始人王旭介绍,随着市场的发展,获取用户的难度越来越高;并且,用户培育门槛变高,存量用户中的核心玩家转向了精准搜索,而非核心玩家转化率和付费效果则在减退。

对于游戏企业而言,这直接转化为“买量崛起”。据悉,2017年前8个月每个月买量游戏的数量和买量游戏激活总数持续上升,但平均单款产品激活量数据持续下降,市场竞争变得越来越激烈。盛大游戏市场中心总经理蔡均这样表示:“流量竞争加剧,买量成本天花板效应明显,买量游戏规模持续扩大,单个买量用户成本持续上升”。

第二是IP红利正在消散。随着泛娱乐化时代的来临,大多数企业都在强调IP的多渠道变现,但也有市场人士提出,并非所有的IP都能够在“网文”、“游戏”、“影视”、“动漫”等领域自由切换,并且,受目标群体、IP属性等因素所限,对IP的打造也需“因材施教”。

事实上,从当前的IP类手游表现看,由影视IP改编手游的成功案例并不多,自《花千骨》之后较少出现影视同名游戏爆款。同时,虽然由端游IP改编的手游成绩较好,但是,对于“端转手”游戏而言,随着IP的不断开发,尚未改编为手游的优质端游IP所剩数量不断减少,端游IP呈现透支之势。

第三是流量红利的减弱。蔡均认为,成熟的市场体现为用户具备能够主动获取内容的能力,而在新增量级有限的情况下,游戏公司都在争取用户及其注意力,由此,对比2年前(2015年)流量的蛮荒期,当前的流量竞争在加剧。

把握投资的四大方向

明了了行业发展新格局后,再进一步看看如何寻找好的游戏公司。

在日前举行的中国游戏产业可持续发展研讨会上,综合多位业内专家观点,在对优质游戏标的企业进行筛选时,可以关注“研运一体、海外市场、品质与服务、社交性”这四个方向。

王旭认为,以发行见长的游戏企业最终都会走向研发、运营一体化的道路,通过并购或自建打造研发团队,“研运一体”将是未来游戏企业的发展趋势。

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