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22日人民币兑美元中间价报6.5861升值6点 结束三连贬

2017-09-22 10:22:17   央广网

9月22日,人民币(6.5827, -0.0033, -0.05%)兑美元中间价报6.5861,较上日中间价升值6个基点,结束了此前的连续三日下调。

隔夜市场,因多头平仓结利,美元指数(92.0770, -0.0956, -0.10%)最低回落至92.1293。隔夜出炉的美国初请等数据表现强劲,但美元对此无动于衷。

人民币受美联储冲击料有限 年内将延续双向波动格局

北京时间周四凌晨,美联储公布9月利率决议,决定维持联邦基金利率区间1%~1.25%不变,宣布10月起开始缩减资产负债表,并暗示年内还将加息一次。美元受到提振,应声而涨1%。

业内人士指出,整体来看,近期美元走弱和人民币走强不大可能在年内有明显反转,预计后续人民币汇率回调空间有限,年内将延续双向波动格局。

九州证券全球首席经济学家邓海清认为,耶伦急于缩表或与明年2月任职到期有关。此次美联储议息会议公布之后,美国债券收益率大幅上行近40BP,美元指数回升至9月5日以来高位92.70,这反映出市场对美联储会议还算“买账”。“但我们需要提醒的是,目前的美债和美元存在较大的政治不确定性,因为特朗普行为与下一任美联储主席的风格无法明确把握。”

交通银行首席经济学家连平也认为,美国经济复苏并非一帆风顺,特朗普提名的新任美联储主席能否一如既往的执行缩表存在不确定性。与此同时,连平认为,强监管趋缓后市场利率可能冲高回落,中美利差可能收窄,人民币对美元汇率短期可能继续回调。但中国经济运行基本平稳,目前人民币汇率已与经济基本面大体相符,监管部门针对外汇和资本流动的宏微观审慎监管持续加强,贬值预期已明显减弱,未来将呈双向波动态势。

中信证券指出,虽然人民币过快升值的势头已经逆转,但大幅贬值也不现实,一方面,今年5月26日逆周期调节因子的引入,在弱化前一日收盘价对中间价的影响的同时,加强了央行的调控能力,有助于预防美元走强造成的市场非理性波动,另一方面,中美利差高于历史均值,提供了较厚的“安全垫”,跨境资本不致过快流出。综上,预计下半年人民币将会在双向波动、中小幅贬值。

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