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供应缩减 沪铜上下两难

2017-09-21 09:42:19   中国经济网

本周,沪铜在大幅回调后出现回升,但相比锌、铝等其他有色金属品种明显乏力。此外,随着沪铜上涨,上海地区的铜现货升水走弱,显示现货商对铜后市持谨慎态度。

供应端中期不构成压力

根据国际铜研究小组(ICSG)的统计数据显示,2017—2018年国际铜矿增量将大幅减少,2017年全球铜矿产量较2016年增加约18万吨,2018年较2017年增加约84万吨,如果算上罢工、事故、恶劣天气等因素影响,ICSG预计2017、2018年国际铜矿的产出是下降的。相比之下,全球精铜产能增速虽然有所下滑,但仍处于扩张中,未来两年的增速预计分别为1.9%和1.7%。

目前看,铜矿供应下降的预期已经逐步转变成为现实。今年上半年,受不断的罢工、洪水、政策调整等不利因素影响,全球铜矿产量进一步下滑。据世界金属统计局(WBMS)统计,2017年1—6月,全球铜矿产量为1010万吨,较去年同期减少0.1%。根据国家统计局数据显示,今年以来,国内铜矿进口量明显大幅下滑。2017年1月至今,中国铜精矿及矿砂进口量同比增速大幅下滑。加工费方面,随着铜矿供应的收窄以及冶炼产能的持续增长,TC/RC费用今年整体较去年下降约20美元/干吨。截至8月,铜矿加工费呈先抑后扬的态势,整体运行平稳。

四季度全球铜矿供应可能会较此前有所回升。智利政府数据显示,智利7月铜矿及精铜产出量为473544吨,较上年同期增长5.2%。此外,此前受罢工影响六周的Escondida已于8月底恢复产量,而自由港旗下的印尼Grasberg铜矿归属之争也暂时告一段落,尽管目前的谈判仍未完全结束,但基本确定的是自由港将继续运营,不过需要出让该矿51%的所有权。

国内需求恐将持续降温

尽管矿山供给收紧,但仍不足以支撑铜价上行。目前铜库存虽然较高点已有大幅下降,但仍处于历史相对偏高位置。LME库存在目前水平盘整已经接近三年时间,铜的去库存过程明显不畅,且库存呈现变化快、波动大的特点,近期库存再次大幅增加。国内库存则整体稳定,年内上海地区精铜多数时间仍以贴水销售为主,贸易商对后市信心不足。

从下游消费分析,年内包括房地产在内的主要投资领域呈现高开低走态势。数据显示,房地产投资完成额自今年3月起同比增速不断回落,截至8月增速已下降至7.93%,为今年以来的最低水平;同样处于下滑趋势的还有房地产销售面积,同比增速一路自年初的25%回落至12%左右。此外,令人担忧的还有基建投资和固定资产投资,截至8月,全国基础设施建设投资额同比自18%左右下降至15%;截至7月,全国固定资产投资累计完成148812亿元人民币,为今年以来最低水平。

总之,从需求端看,虽然市场对铜未来下游消费有种种好的预期,但远水不解近渴,下游消费短期难见大幅抬升。从供应端看,2018年的铜矿产量仍将受限,此前由价格上涨引发的矿山建设离投产仍有时日。因此,沪铜后期将更多受市场情绪以及题材的影响,短期看上下两难。

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