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芝商所Classic Bond期货的成功经验

2017-09-21 09:37:29   中国经济网

为满足投资者日益强烈的避险需求,全球主要交易所纷纷推出利率期货产品,其中国债期货表现抢眼。然而,国债期货在运行过程中可能面临政策方面的冲击,比如美国财政部2001—2006年暂停发行新的30年期长期国库券,从而导致可交割成Classic Bond(经典债券)期货的合资格债券到期日出现缺口。

如果某个期限的国债停止发行,意味着可交割债券在某段时间面临缺口,如果相对应的期货产品应对不当,可能出现挤兑等恶性事件。芝商所针对Classic Bond期货对应的可交割债券到期日出现缺口的处理措施比较得当,在市场感受到冲击后的两年半时间内,Classic Bond期货继续蓬勃发展。

Classic Bond期货需要实物交割剩余到期期限至少15年但少于25年的原始发行长期国库券。由于构成Classic Bond期货交割篮子的合资格债券在息票和到期日方面有所不同,因此使用一个转换因子。芝商所通过按6个百分点的收益率对可交割债券进行定价将久期差异标准化,转换因子系统中的细微差别及期货与现金市场的相互作用意味着,在每个交割期中会有一只债券成为最便宜交割债券(The Cheapest to Deliver,CTD)。

如何理解转换因子和最便宜交割债券呢?全球主要国债期货标的一般对应的是名义标准券(Hypothetical Standardized Bond),指票面利率标准化、具有固定期限的假想券。名义标准券设计的最大功能在于,可以扩大可交割国债的范围,增强价格的抗操纵性,减小交割时的逼仓风险。现实中名义标准券并不存在,因而交易所会规定,现实中存在的、满足一定期限要求的一篮子国债均可进行交割。可交割债券和名义标准券之间的价格通过一个转换比例进行换算,这个比例就是通常所说的转换因子。

与股指期货标的资产的“唯一性”不同,国债期货最主要的特点就是其标的资产的“多样性”,满足一定要求的国债均是其标的资产,都可用于到期交割。尽管有很多现货,但期货报价只有一个,因此每份国债期货合约均引入虚拟的“标准券”,期货报价以标准券报价,同时交易所公布所有可交割券与这一标准券之间的转换因子,实现标准券与真实券价格之间的转换。

转换因子换算尽管具有一定的合理性,然而并非是完美的。真正公平的转换因子应当是期货到期时可交割券的真实净价与标准券真实净价之比,但在期货到期前,由于无法事先知道这些债券的真实价值,交易所只能以假设的统一贴现率作为定价基准来实现尽量公平的转换。由于转换并不完美,到期时不可避免地存在交割某只债券比其他债券更加合算的情形,而国债期货合约规定最终交割时由期货空方决定选择哪只债券进行交割,相对合算而会被期货空方选中进行交割的债券就被称为最便宜交割债券。

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